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Market Outlook: Hanoi summit cut short

Signing ceremony cancelled
February 28, 2019

The first day of the summit meeting between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un had apparently gone well with the latter, for the first time ever, happy to take questions from reporters in the press room. Both seemed pleased with their ‘constructive meetings’ and advised that after lunch today there would be a small ceremony; both have now been cancelled. This will add to the US President’s woes where Niall Ferguson of Stanford University suggested yesterday that the spat between Trump and his Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would result in a ‘weak’ and ‘inadequate’ trade deal with China.

In Parliament in Rome yesterday economy minister Giovanni Tria suggested the bail-in rules for banks should be scrapped, something put forward earlier by Italian head of banking Antonio Patuelli. Their reasoning was that the rules had never been used (so far) and that they damaged investor and savers’ sentiment. Tria added that the rules were forced on them and that the post-financial crisis economy minister had been ‘‘practically blackmailed’’ by his German counterpart into accepting them.

DAX 30

Potentially building a tiny rounded top close to early December’s high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Looking for signs that this year’s corrective bounce has ended.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Momentum’s turned bearish as yesterday’s close was this month’s lowest so far. We shall look at monthly candles tomorrow to see whether we have any significant candle patterns.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Small short at 7120; stop above 7275. Target 6800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Overbought still and all moves are so tiny one practically needs a magnifying glass to see them viz: yesterday’s hanging man candle.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2775; stop a bit above 2820. Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2795; stop above 2875. Target 2600.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Bullish momentum’s at its strongest in months with an extra little boost from Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund which announced yesterday that, regardless of any Brexit result, they would be increasing their UK exposure over the next 30 years.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Watching for weekly and monthly closes above the trend line and resistance at 1.3200 before re-buying.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Consolidating neatly at fractionally higher levels.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1305; stop below 1.1325. Target 1.1480.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Why do I bother? Going nowhere and the MACD has ticked down.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1326; stop above 1350. First target 1300.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1328; stop above 1350. Target 1255.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.