Two more decades later and advances in electronics mean digital technology can now deliver what was overambitiously expected of it in 1999. And technology companies have indeed become the biggest companies on our stock markets – they now account for seven of the world’s 10 largest companies by value; five of those are pure-play internet companies. Of those five, three trade only in data – which, as we are often told, is now more valuable than oil (which may be true – five of the world’s top 10 companies by revenue, rather than market cap, are oil and gas producers). Three billion of the world’s 7.5bn inhabitants are said to be active users of social media – a statistic I can hardly believe as I write it. In the US, which led the commercialisation of cyberspace, the digital economy was worth around a trillion dollars, or over 6 per cent of real GDP, when measured in 2016. Incredibly, the UK is further ahead, relatively speaking – according to Boston Consulting, by 2015 the internet economy was worth £180bn, second only in importance to property and accounting for a tenth of UK GDP, the highest proportion in the G20. And that figure does not fully reflect just how far the web has found its way into our lives, in work and leisure, in relationships, and how we are governed.
Yet Sir Tim isn’t the proud parent that he should be, thanks to the web’s difficult adolescence. In an open letter, he warned that his progeny is heading towards a “dysfunctional” future – think scamming, hacking, clickbait, hate speech, or data abuse. A great effort is now required to set the web back on track as a force for good, he says. So he will have been relieved to hear chancellor Philip Hammond committing not only to investing in leading-edge technology in his Spring Statement, but also endorsing the finding of the Furman Review that our competition law needs an upgrade to keep up with the progress of technology.
That’s a view repeatedly expressed in this magazine. The web’s youthful years have been a great ride, for users and investors alike. But it is time it grew up – and as that happens investors will need to continually reappraise their exposure to the sector. The next 30 years are only likely to bring more change than the first 30.
