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Market Outlook: Nothing doing in 2019

Says the US Federal Reserve
March 21, 2019

Following its two-day rate-setting meeting in Washington, yesterday Jerome Powell, head of the US central bank, not only kept the Fed Funds target unchanged (2.25-2.50 per cent), as expected, but said it was probably going to stay there until year-end. This is a sooner than expected end to the process which began in 2015 aiming to get interest rates back up to more ‘normal’ levels. He added that the rate at which it would trim its holdings of Treasury paper would slow. Forecasts for this year’s economic growth, inflation and unemployment were trimmed.   

Yesterday in Brussels Hungary’s Fidesz party was voted out, by 190 to 3, of the European People’s Party, the umbrella for pro-European Christian Democrats at the European Parliament. Headed up by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban, it is a move to counter his disregard for the rule of law. The vote means Fidesz will be banned from all the EPP’s meetings, lose all voting rights, and generally have no say in policy. Today and tomorrow in Brussels all 28 European Union leaders meet with Brexit front and centre. No doubt they’ll hold talks late into the night to prove just how hard they’re ‘working’.

DAX 30

A bearish engulfing candle which might be part of an irregular evening star 3-candle combination which has a shooting star spike high at its centre.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11600; stop well above 11800. First target 10800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 11550; stop above 11825. Target 11000.

FTSE 100

Still overbought at this year’s highs.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Gently rolling over and the commodity channel index might turn down decisively today.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Will try a tiny short if the CCI closes below 100 tonight.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Cable loses a bit of what little bullish momentum it had while still trading above what had been trend line resistance.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out on the drop below 1.3200 yesterday for a small loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Stalling 10 pips short of our take profit target yesterday, comfortably above important lows below 1.1300.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Took profit at 1.1400 this morning as cannot face the prospect of sitting with any position through an EU leaders’ summit.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

 

With central banks back-pedalling left, right and centre maybe gold’s allure shines a bit more brightly.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1328; stop above 1320. Target 1255.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.