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Market Outlook: Bad start to 2019 for Chinese industrials

Biggest slump in profits for a decade
March 27, 2019

The Financial Times this morning reports that data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that profits at big industrial companies fell by 14 per cent Y/Y during January and February. This reverses December’s 10.3 per cent annualised gain and is the worst showing since 2009. This despite the authorities loosening purse strings, lowering interest rate targets, and generally bending over backwards to counter the effects of a global slowdown and the trade war with the Unites States.   

BBC News reports this morning that 153 cases of measles have been confirmed in Rockland County, just up the Hudson river from Manhattan. A state of emergency has been declared, sick and unvaccinated children are banned from school and, as from today, barred from public meeting spaces. Violations will face a $500 fine and up to 6 months in prison. Some believe the outbreak, which follows others in Washington, California, Texas and Illinois, is caused by a trend not to vaccinate children for religious reasons or because a belief it could trigger autism.

DAX 30

Rallying a bit more with a second consecutive daily hammer candle though momentum remains bearish. Scepticism over the Commerzbank/Deutsche Bank merger grows again, this time as union bosses have threatened to scotch the Postbank integration, reports the Financial Times.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11450; stop well above 11625. First target 10860.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11550; stop above 11825. Target 10600.

FTSE 100

The MACD has turned marginally bearish this week.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7190; stop above 7370. Target 6830.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7190; stop above 7370. First target 6600.

S&P 500

Just sort of hovering up here and the MACD’s a mess.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2800; stop above 2865. Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2800; stop above 2900. Target 2550.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Pushing on to the bitter end, rather like our British PM.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Not a lot to get one’s teeth into here, but contemplating another purchase.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Back below 1320 and the commodity channel index is threatening to turn down.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.