Expect another chaotic day in Westminster as MPs are presented with a smorgasbord of options as to what sort of Withdrawal Agreement they might favour. We are not alone in facing political upheaval. Elections over the weekend have thrown up a comedian, whose TV show portrays him as Ukraine’s President, as front runner by a long mile in the first round of Presidential elections. In Slovakia, a political outsider with negligible experience in politics has become the country’s first female President. In Turkish local elections ruling strong-man Erdogan’s party has lost out to the opposition Republican People’s Party in several cities. In Italy Di Maio and Salvini are at each other’s throats again. Results from Thailand’s general election last weekend have still not been published.
Reuters reports that the new head of Japan’s banking lobby has said that commercial banks should not blame the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy on their inability to make profits. The same complaint has been levelled at the ECB from banks in the Eurozone, while Dutch hawkish rate-setter Klaas Knot insists: ‘’there is no recession or crisis’’.
DAX 30
Three consecutive monthly rallies have ended in a doji, retracing half of last year’s drop, and at the neckline of an important head and shoulders top. This is not bullish.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11450; stop well above 11625. First target 10860.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 11550; stop above 11825. Target 10600.
FTSE 100
Back inside the broadening top chart pattern having retraced a Fibonacci 61 per cent of last year’s slump. Very disappointing that the index is only marginally higher than where it was in 2013.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 7190; stop above 7370. Target 6830.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7190; stop above 7370. First target 6600.
S&P 500
Another stock index with three consecutive monthly rallies which have reversed much of Q4’s carnage. However, on the way up breadth has been poor with lots of divergence.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2800; stop above 2865. Target 2600.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2800; stop above 2900. Target 2550.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
An awful lot of forecasters who have been extolling the virtues of shorting sterling still scratching their head and wondering why there isn’t blood on the streets.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New tiny long at 1.3020; stop well below 1.2950. Target 1.3300.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
The good news is that we are where we were 4 years ago, having held a very narrow range against the US dollar throughout.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
On the monthly chart, we appear to have formed a 3-candle evening star with a shooting star at its centre. Coinciding with multi-year resistance just under 1400, how anyone can seriously make a strong bullish case for this precious metal is beyond me.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 1291; stop above 1320. Target 1240/1250.
POSITION TAKER: New short at 1292; stop above 1350. Target 1185.
