Market Outlook: Australian trade surplus expands

To a new record high

April 3, 2019

Data published this morning showed that in March, though exports remained unchanged on the month, imports fell by 1 per cent, taking the trade surplus to AU$4.801 million. This is welcome news against a backdrop of a housing slide, and added to today’s other positive fillip which was a rise in retail sales during February of 0.8 per cent, the biggest monthly gain since November 2017.

Download documents (.pdf )

Yesterday, after weeks of demonstrations in the streets of Algeria, the army put pressure on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika by threatening to declare him unfit for office. The ailing head of state, who had won countless rounds of elections over the last 20 years, resigned with immediate effect rather than contest upcoming elections.

DAX 30

Almost overbought as we inch to a new high for this year.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

POSITION TAKER: Another nasty hit to the wallet this morning as I’m stopped out of my short position.

FTSE 100

Overbought again as we creep up to the psychological 7400.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out here too.

POSITION TAKER: Stopped out but not too hard a hit, thank goodness.

S&P 500

Almost overbought again as the market ekes its way to a new high for this year.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2800; stop above 2865. Target 2600.

POSITION TAKER: Short at 2800; stop above 2900. Target 2550.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Trying, egged on by the commodity channel index that has turned up decisively. We’ve edged above the triangle consolidation top, are just above the old trend line, just in time for looming Brexit deadlines.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Tiny long at 1.3020; stop below 1.2950. Target 1.3300.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Trying to base again at this year’s low with a little doji yesterday. It would look a little more convincing if the commodity channel index were to turn up above -100.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

GOLD