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Market Outlook: US Trade Representative’s list of tariffs

Retaliation against Airbus
April 9, 2019

CNBC reports that yesterday Robert Lighthizer, US Trade Representative, proposed a series of new tariffs on imports from the EU in retaliation to the long-running dispute around aircraft subsidies. The World Trade Organisation found (some time ago) that there were ‘adverse effects’ amounting to $11 billion caused by EU subsidies to Airbus, hitting Boeing hard. The new list includes wine and food imports, as well as aircraft parts and might come into force this summer.

Italian Deputy PM Matteo Salvini yesterday announced an alliance of hard-right EU populist parties which will contest this May’s elections to the European Parliament, The Telegraph reports. Those invited to join include his Right League, Alternative for Germany, the Danish People’s Party, The Finns Party and the UK’s Conservatives. He added, ‘’our aim is to be the biggest group in the European Parliament’’, curtailing the ‘’nightmare’’ of federalism and blocking illegal migration. There are currently 751 seats up for grabs, 705 if Britain leaves the EU.

DAX 30

Overbought and looking a little tired today.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Decidedly overbought on the daily chart.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Overbought and a flurry of tech IPOs pencilled in for this quarter makes the cynical wonder.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2800; stop above 2900. Target 2550.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Mrs May and her entourage fly to Berlin and Paris today for top-level talks ahead of her meeting with the rest of the EU clan in Brussels tomorrow. Again, the commodity channel index has turned up from below -100, suggesting one go long.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny long at 1.3020; stop below 1.2950. Target 1.3300.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Momentum has yet to turn bullish and a daily close above 1.1260 would complete a small rounded bottom (with a doji at its centre).

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1245; stop below 1.1170. Target 1.1380.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1225; stop below 1.1170. Target 1.1425.

GOLD

Momentum is clearly bearish despite yesterday’s blip above the psychological 1300 – where it didn’t look very happy.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1292; stop above 1320. Target 1185.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.