Yesterday the Office for National Statistics published data for the tax year 2017-2018. It showed the UK government borrowed £24.7 billion, £17.2 billion less than it did last year, and a lot less than the original estimate made in November 2017 of £39.5 billion. The figure would have been slightly lower, and closer to chancellor Hammond’s spring estimate, had it not been for spending on schools and the NHS in March 2018. Total public sector debt outstanding (excluding rescued banks) is running at £1.8 trillion. Talking of which, Fast FT reports this morning that Ross McEwan, CEO of RBS, is to stand down within the next 12 months.
The Bank of Canada is the latest central bank to change its tune this year. Rather than the usual rate rise forecast that we’ve heard for years, at yesterday’s meeting said the target rate would remain at 1.75 per cent, and probably for a long time, because of a deterioration in this year’s economic outlook.
DAX 30
Still very overbought as we rally again yesterday to a new high for this year.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Though still overbought the RSI has dropped down from ludicrous levels with yesterday’s small bearish engulfing candle. Just a tiny hint of instability.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
No noise, no price action and no gains yesterday; still super-overbought.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Not the only currency that’s sagged against the US dollar; yesterday it was Canada’s loonie’s turn.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Dipping to the lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017, keeping momentum marginally bearish. After a ‘very challenging’ quarter for UBS this year, sources say they are in serious merger talks about a link with Deutsche Bank’s asset management arm.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out on the dip below 1.1170.
POSITION TAKER: Also stopped out here at the same level.
GOLD
Bearish momentum has been maintained despite dithering around the neckline of the head and shoulders top.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1283; stop above 1290. Next target 1260.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1292; stop above 1290. Target 1185.
