Released this morning, retail sales across this vast nation grew by just 7.2 per cent annualised, from 8.7 per cent growth the previous month, and well below trimmed expectations; this was the slowest pace since May 2003 and, for the first time since 2009, the volume and value of clothes sold fell. Industrial production also dropped by more than expected, to 5.4 per cent over the last 12 months from 8.5 per cent in what had been a buoyant March. It was weighed down by a slowing auto industry, where production dropped 16 per cent and vehicle sales fell 14.6 per cent in April, a 10th consecutive monthly decline.
Also released this morning, Statistics Indonesia said April’s trade deficit was the biggest on record, exports falling 13.1 per cent over the year while imports shrank by 6.6 per cent. The Financial Times reports that at $2.5 billion the deficit is the biggest since data was first collected in the 1950s. Adding to this grim Asian picture Japan reported April machine tool orders fell by 33.4 per cent per annum, the biggest fall since October 2009.
DAX 30
Guttering around the 23 per cent Fibonacci retracement support level, just above the trend line since Christmas, at the neckline of the huge head and shoulders top. As if life weren’t difficult enough, now we’ll be hanging on the minute developments in Sino-US trade talks. State-owned mainland Chinese media reaction to ‘unprovoked’ US aggression sums up the tone.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11840; stop12200. Target 10750.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 12110; stop above 12285. Target 11000.
FTSE 100
Bouncing from Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement support, reducing bearish momentum considerably.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 7245; stop above 7300. Target 7020.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7275; stop above 7400. Target 6875.
S&P 500
Bearish momentum eased a little as we attempt a bounce from Fibonacci 23 per cent retracement support. The California couple awarded $2 billion in their cancer case caused by Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer should send shivers down the spines of Bayer shareholders as over 13,000 cases linked to the chemical’s use are pending.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2880; stop above 2960. Target
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Testing the lower reaches of this year’s range.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
First trend line resistance held yesterday in a slightly worrying sign ahead of next week’s EU parliamentary elections.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Closed my long position on yesterday’s close at 1.1200 for a 10 pip profit. Ridiculous really.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Stalling around Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement resistance and the psychological 1300 point. Small, inconsistent moves mean my track record here has gone downhill again.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
