Inland Homes (INL:68p), a leading brownfield developer, housebuilder and partnership housing company with a focus on the south and south-east of England, has been granted planning consent to create a new urban village of 1,725 homes and 19,000 square metres of commercial space at Cheshunt Lakeside, Hertfordshire. The site is located just outside the M25 and is only 27 minutes from London's Liverpool Street station by train.
It’s a significant milestone after Inland entered into a joint-venture partnership to acquire the site in June 2016 with a view to obtaining planning permission and ultimately selling on the land. Under the terms of the joint-venture agreement, Inland has an obligation to fund 50 per cent of the costs of the site and is entitled to receive 50 per cent of the net returns. Together with its joint-venture partner, Inland owns and controls 1,253 of the 1,725 consented residential plots and 4,905 square metres of commercial and educational space within the Cheshunt masterplan area, which has an estimated gross development value of £620m. Inland is the lead developer on the broader masterplan, and is working with the council to deliver it.
The planning approval highlights Inland’s strategy of acquiring quality land in areas of high demand, adding significant value by securing planning permission, and then generating value for shareholders through a mix of selective in-house development and by providing a turnkey solution for development partners. Analysts at house broker Panmure Gordon expects the site to be cleared in late summer/early autumn and first delivery of the housing scheduled for mid to late 2021.
Taken together with the planning consent gained on Inland’s flagship site at Wilton Park, Beaconsfield, which I covered a fortnight ago ('Inland wins major planning consent', 10 Jun 2019), we can now expect Inland’s end 2018 European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA) net asset value (NAV) of £213m (103.6p a share) to increase sharply when it releases a pre-close trading update in early October 2019, having sensibly moved its next financial year-end from 30 June 2019 to 30 September 2019 to be able to offer greater financial clarity on the Cheshunt Lakes and Wilton Park developments.
Analysts are holding fire on upgrading their financial estimates, but it’s clear to me that these two flagship developments have the potential to create additional value in the order of 40 to 50 per cent of Inland’s last reported NAV, albeit the company is likely to be more conservative in its valuation approach in the 2019 accounts. The point is that with the shares trading on a 34 per cent discount to NAV per share prior to analysts releasing significant upgrades, the potential for a material increase in the carrying value of Inland’s two flagship developments is simply not being priced in, nor is their near-term profit potential if Inland decides to sell on parcels of land to major housebuilders. There is undoubtedly demand given the proximity of both schemes to London.
The likely realisation of substantial gains on the company’s land bank as it passes through the planning process, and an attractive share price discount to NAV, were the key bull points in the investment thesis I outlined when I included Inland’s shares, at 57.75p, in my 2019 Bargain Shares Portfolio. The company is clearly delivering. Trading on a bid-offer spread of 67.5p to 68p, valuing Inland’s equity at £140m, I continue to rate the shares a strong buy and introduce a target price of 95p to 100p. Strong buy.
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