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Market Outlook: President Trump has yet another new target

Now Japan, ahead of Osaka’s G20 Summit
June 27, 2019

The Financial Times reports that in a telephone interview yesterday with Fox Business the US President said the bilateral US-Japan mutual security treaty was lopsided. ‘’If Japan is attacked, we will fight WWIII. We will go in and protect them with our lives and with our treasure. But if we are attacked, Japan doesn’t have to help us at all. They can watch on a Sony television’’. For good measure Mr Trump also lambasted India for retaliatory ‘very high tariffs’ and EU anti-trust commissioner Vesatger who ‘hates’ the US. And it gets worse: ‘‘I have the right to demote him [Fed chair Jerome Powell]; I have the right to fire him. He has to lower interest rates to help us compete with China’’.

City AM reports on Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s meeting at the Treasury Select Committee yesterday. On funds like Neil Woodford’s he said: ‘these funds are built on a lie that you can have daily liquidity for assets that fundamentally aren’t liquid’, suggesting that the way these were regulated ought to change because they could pose a systemic risk. Over in France Natixis’ H2O fund claims there have been ‘substantial inflows’ since Monday’s announcement it would waive entry fees, and that redemptions have dropped to one fifth of peak on June 21. Here too the problem is liquidity – ironic for a thus-named fund.

DAX 30

Rallying a little this morning and keeping momentum bullish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Moribund with negligible bullish momentum and another dragonfly doji yesterday.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Small short at 7385; stop above 7470. Target 7100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Holding first Fibonacci retracement support this morning despite yesterday’s slightly bearish little shooting star candle.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2885; stop above 2960. Target 2800.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

The MACD is marginally bullish, as it has been for most of this month, and yesterday’s tiny doji suggests cable is trying to regroup following rejection at the top of the broadening base.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2740; stop below 1.2630. Target 1.2900.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

A decent-sized doji yesterday suggesting the market is looking for its next move, trying to second-guess President Trump’s next broadside.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New little long at 1.1365; stop below 1.1300. Target 1.1435.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Still overbought despite yesterday’s retreat which forms a 3-candle bearish pattern known as an evening star.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 1407; stop above 1440. Target 1335.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 1404; stop above 1440. Target 1320.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.