Data published this morning showed that Swiss unemployment dipped in June to 2.3 per cent seasonally adjusted, 2.1 per cent actual, and the May figure was downwardly revised to 2.3 per cent from 2.4. These numbers have been declining steadily from 3.3 per cent in March 2017 while bringing into question the concept of full employment. The highest was 4.3 per cent in March 1998, the sort of number boasted about in Britain and the US where it is considered ‘full employment’. Switzerland’s record low in this series was 1.6 per cent in December 2000.
Data from the British Retail Consortium published this morning saw shops have a really bad month in June. Not only did heavy rain affect things, but compares with June 2018 when we had a heat wave and a men’s football world cup. Total sales fell 1.3 per cent, non-food driving the decline by dropping 4.3 per cent, taking the annual figure to minus 0.6 per cent - the lowest since 1995. Though online sales grew by 4 per cent, this is half the rate a of year ago. CEO Helen Dickenson added,’’overall the picture is bleak: rising real wages have failed to translate into higher spending as ongoing Brexit uncertainty led consumers to put off non-essential purchases’’.
DAX 30
Keeling over slightly, as is the MACD, not helped by Deutsche Bank shares which dropped 5.4 per cent yesterday after the restructuring was announced and layoff started. Estimates for the size of the bank’s derivatives vary considerably but are generally gauged to be in the trillions.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Will re-sell on a daily close below 12400.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
The commodity channel index just turned down yesterday with prices back to where they were late April.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New short on yesterday’s close at 7550; stop above 7625. Target 7200.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
The commodity channel index just turned down yesterday with prices back to where they were late April.
S&P 500
Dipping back down to where we were on the 1st May as President Trump withdraws a Whit House dinner invitation to the British Ambassador to the US in honour of the Emir of Qatar. The commodity channel index turned down here too.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New short on yesterday’s close at 2975; stop well above 3000. Target 2800.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Oversold again on the daily chart as we continue to work inside a potential broadening base. After President Recep Erdogan of Turkey sacked his central banker speculation as to Mark Carney’s replacement has revived. It was on the 6th May 1997 that Chancellor Gordon Brown, 4 days after a Labour landslide win, gave the Bank of England independence from political control.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Momentum turning more bearish on yesterday’s close.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Another shooting star candle, this time on the daily chart, makes one wonder whether someone is pushing hard to get prices higher.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1406; stop above 1440. Target 1340.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1404; stop above 1440. Target 1320.
