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Market Outlook: Minutes from Australia’s Reserve Bank

Might cut interest rate again
July 16, 2019

Published this morning, Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia said: ’there was scope to ease monetary policy further if needed’. The key Cash Rate was cut recently to a new record low at 1 per cent. The reasoning behind the comment is because it’s keeping an eye on the slowing Chinese economy  - its biggest trading partner – and house price falls which are causing a sagging in consumer sentiment.

Today at 18:00 BST at the European Parliament in Strasbourg MEPs get to vote on whether to accept the German nominee, Ursula von der Leyden, as Commission President. She needs a majority (374 votes), which are secret, there are no whips, and six in ten MPs are newly elected, according to the Financial Times.

DAX 30

Momentum turned bearish on Friday’s close and remains so despite yesterday’s small bounce.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 12530; stop above 12600. Target 11800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12385; stop above 12665. Target 11600.

FTSE 100

Bullish momentum has fizzled out despite first support around 7500 holding.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7550; stop above 7625. Target 7200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7515; stop above 7625. Target 7100.

S&P 500

Highly unstable because it’s overbought again, making a barely discernible new record high, ending the day with a tiny doji where the closing price is exactly on the upper edge of a long-established potential broadening top formation.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

No momentum as the market tries again to base against the lower edge of the broadening base formation.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2510; stop well below 1.2500. First target 1.2750.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2525; stop below 1.2440. Target 1.2800.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Hovering in the middle of the range since June with not a lot going for it.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1240; stop below 1.1180. Target 1.1340.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Bullish momentum’s pretty much gone this month as we consolidate in a possible triangle.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1406; stop above 1440. Target 1340.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1404; stop above 1440. Target 1320.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.