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Market Outlook: China exports grow while imports slow

Certainly, not buying US soybeans
August 8, 2019

Chinese July trade data published this morning showed a surplus 310 billion yuan, equivalent to US $45 billion – but who knows for how long as this exchange rate has fluctuated quite a bit over the last week. Exports grew 3.3 per cent during the month as opposed to a 1.3 per cent drop in June, taking the annualised rate to 10.3 per cent, and a lot better than June’s 6.1 per cent growth. Meanwhile imports fell 5.6 per cent in July having fallen by 7.3 per cent in June; the annualised rate now stands at a meagre 0.4 per cent growth reversing June’s 0.4 per cent decline.

Yesterday the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau posted on its website an advisory for US visitors to the region, raising the level to 2 out of 4 points. This is because of the demonstrations, which sometimes can be violent, don’t seem likely to end soon. Ironically Venezuela and Uruguay yesterday issued warnings to their citizens planning on travelling to the US. Following the mass murder in El Paso they felt Spanish speaking people might be targets of hate crime.

DAX 30

A slightly unsteady attempt at continuing Tuesday’s bounce yesterday as we approach 38 per cent Fibonacci retracement resistance. The MACD remains clearly bearish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 11650 and have added at 11800; stop above 12200. Target 11000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11835; stop well above 12200. First target 11000.

FTSE 100

Tortuous attempts at a bounce which appears to have stalled at first (23%) Fibonacci retracement resistance.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Small short at 7200; stop above 7400. Target 7000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7570; stop above 7430. Target 7000.

S&P 500

Highly unstable intra-day yesterday ending up with a large hanging man candle with its head on Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement resistance.

 

SHORT: Short at 2945; stop above 2920. Target 2780 again.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Small short at 2870; stop above 2930. Target 2735.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

The commodity channel index held on in bullish territory but quite frankly, one might as well move along as there’s nothing to see here.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2180; stop below 1.2080. Target 1.2500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Consolidating in a titchy triangle at the 50 per cent retracement level as the Eurozone ponders President Trump’s next move.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1165; stop below 1.1060. Target 1.1340.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Inching above the psychological $1500 per ounce as sovereign bond yields tumble to new record lows in many countries. As overbought as it was late June, it is especially expensive when measured in some weaker currencies.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.