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Market Outlook: Japan CPI dips again

A perennial problem lasting decades
September 20, 2019

Released overnight, Japan’s August nationwide price inflation dipped to an annualised rate of just 0.3 per cent from 0.5 per cent in July. One of the lowest readings in almost 3 years, it underlines the struggle the nation has had with this intractable problem for decades. Excluding the cost of fresh food, their preferred measure, it’s currently running at 0.5 per cent Y/Y. To get a sense of perspective, CPI hit a record high in 1974 at 22.8 per cent, and has been under 5 per cent since 1982, with a record low minus 2.2 per cent in 2009.

British shoppers aren’t flashing the plastic - again. Data from the ONS yesterday showed that the volume of goods bought in August dropped by 0.2 per cent on the month so that the annualised rate of growth slipped from 3.4 per cent in July to 2.7 per cent last month; excluding fuel, sales fell by 0.3 per cent to 2.2 per cent Y/Y. They added that a drop in online shopping ‘was the largest contributor to this fall’.

DAX 30

Hanging on in there still with a fading bullish MACD and a series of indecisive doji and hanging men little candles.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

A tiny little range this week but keep an eye on EUR/GBP which has dipped just below 89 pence today, the first time it’s been here since May. Presumably this was on a change of tune from Jean-Claude Juncker for Sky News.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

A decent dragonfly doji yesterday as the New York Federal Reserve Bank hands out another $75 billion against general collateral to ease liquidity issues; they are preparing to do the same again today.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Picking up the pace a little and have now retraced a Fibonacci 76.4 per cent of the drop that started late June. Interesting to note that The Telegraph reports that latest data show that since the referendum only 1000 City jobs have moved abroad. Over in Hong Kong and Singapore Mitsubishi Financial Group will halve its workforce.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Took profits at my original target at 1.2550.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2500; stop below 1.2375. Target 1.2750.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Holding pretty much between 1.1000 and 1.1100 and fantastically uninspiring.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1105; stop below 1.0980. Target 1.1350.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Still clinging to trend line support and bearish momentum has eased considerably.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.