Sebastian Kurz (33), the youthful leader of Austria’s conservatives, whose coalition government with the far-right Freedom Party collapsed after an expenses scandal, took an estimated 38 per cent of all votes making them the key to a new coalition government. Next in line with around 22 per cent of the vote were the Social Democrats, their worst showing since WWII, followed by a diminished far—right and then the Greens at 14 per cent. Negotiations are expected to take weeks, making Austria another EU nation with a ropy handle on government.
The World Trade Organisation has found that EU airplane-maker Airbus received billions in illegal subsidies for at least 15 years; so too has US’s Boeing. They are expected to decide on a record award for the US this week, with another against to US due in 2020. Suggestions are that the Geneva-based organisation is thinking of tariffs on EU goods exported to the US running into roughly $7.5 billion, a record.
DAX 30
Last week feels like a complete non-event, something reflected in an irrelevant MACD. However, the weekly candle is a small hanging man and today’s the last day of Q3 2019; time to take stock. German auto-maker VW, which has already taken an approximate hit of $30 billion on the diesel emissions scandal, is facing an imminent decision on a collective case brought by 400,000 German car drivers, again related to cheating on exhaust data.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 12365; stop above 12500. Target 11600.
POSITION TAKER: New short at 12350; stop well above 12500. Target 11400.
FTSE 100
Ending the week by settling on Fibonacci 61 per cent retracement resistance – for the first time since July – yet the MACD remains bearish.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Clinging rather sadly to support around 2960 but the weekly MACD remains bearish. Note that price action since March is a version of a broadening top, a fractal of all price action since 2018.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Giving up half of this month’s earlier gains with what looks like an evening star combination over the last 3 weeks. The trouble is that a reversal pattern of this kind ought to follow a decent bull market, something we haven’t seen really, and the MACD remains bullish. Plenty of divergence here, so tread very carefully.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New small long at 1.2290; stop well below 1.2200. Target 1.2500.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
A sorry little specimen with its lowest weekly closing price since May 20117 and even then, it isn’t oversold.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Once again settling on first Fibonacci retracement support, this time with a weekly shooting star candle and the MACD at its least bullish since this summer’s strong rally started. Beware divergence.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.