Data out overnight show that exports from Japan fell in September, by a bigger than expected 5.2 per cent annualised, making this its tenth monthly consecutive fall; imports also fell by 1.5 per cent on trade issues with China and South Korea. The trade balance was in the red by 97 billion yen, roughly where it’s been since May 2018. The Financial Times reports today that after the recent sales tax hike spending in supermarkets in Japan fell by 10 to 20 per cent over the last week, despite a cash rebate available when paying electronically.
From the 1st November, recent, Italian ex-prime minister Paolo Gentiloni will be the EU’s economics commissioner, and in this capacity, wrote in yesterday’s Il Sole 24 Ore newspaper that, ‘’it’s time for countries which have fiscal space to use it, in an overall context of less restrictive budgetary policies…[because] the risks of a prolonged period of low growth must not be overlooked’’. He will also be responsible for scrutinising Italy’s 2020 budget where a draft report submitted recently to the commission, showed a 0.1 per cent increase in the structural deficit rather than the original 0.6 per cent reduction.
DAX 30
Ten months into this calendar year and this index last week managed to retrace a Fibonacci 76.4 per cent of last year’s losses; hardly going great guns.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12625; stop well above 12825. Target 11880.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Half way between last year’s high and low with bearish momentum increasing fractionally last week.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 7140; stop above 7280. Target 7025.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Still stuck in a series of broadening tops with the MACD marginally bearish since June. This afternoon Canada goes to the polls with current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approval rating s lower than he’d like.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
A weekly close above the first of a series of fan resistance trend lines is a good start for a currency that’s still cheap by historical standards. Note also that for the first time since March momentum is clearly bullish.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2600. Target 1.3150.
POSITION TAKER: New long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2535. Target 1.3350.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Scraping itself off the bottom though momentum is barely bullish.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New little long at 1.1150; stop below 1.0990. First target 1.1250.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Another day and another week of pointless price action. Note that last week’s range was the smallest in months.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.
