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Market Outlook: JP Morgan switches from loans to bonds

Petty cash on a $130 billion shopping spree
November 4, 2019

Ironically for the US’s biggest bank, excess cash is being switched from lending it out to buying bonds. This is because of changes to the provisioning of these two different types of bank assets, which views bonds a safer than lending money. The buying bonanza has seen the banking giant’s bond portfolio increase by 50 per cent, according to the Financial Times. It also means than a lot of paper will be locked away until maturity and yet another layer of liquidity removed permanently.

One among many of the electioneering promises being made is an increase in the New Living Wage and bringing the age of entitlement down to 21 from the current 25-year-olds. A survey published in City AM today, collated by KPMG, showed that full-time employees currently earning the Living Wage compose 19 per cent of the population, down from 22 per cent last year. Part-timers on the other hand see 38 per cent earning less than the real Living Wage, making up 25 per cent of women and 15 per cent of men. Chairman James Stewart commented: ‘’what’s good for workers is good for business too’’, with measures to increase low pay ‘’an effective driver’’ of productivity.

DAX 30

Not yet overbought after last week’s little hanging man candle and it creeps above the psychological 13000 today. Ahead of a meeting today with German auto-makers, Angela Merkel in a video yesterday said she wanted her country to have 1 million electric car charging points by 2030, to which the industry must contribute. This after 30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall on 9th November 1989.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Election promises which will balloon the government deficit are having little impact on this index.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Not overbought on a weekly basis despite inching to a new record high and pushing at the upper edges of the broadening top potential patterns.

 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Holding happily at the Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement level allowing bullish momentum to increase a bit further last week.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2800. Target 1.3150.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2750. Target 1.3350.

EURO/US DOLLAR

 

Weekly momentum is not yet bullish as the euro tries to scrape itself off the bottom.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1150; stop below 1.1065. First target 1.1250.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

The weekly MACD remains bearish as the market hovers around the psychological 1500.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.