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Market Outlook: Record turnout for Sunday elections in Hong Kong

Landslide majority for the democrats
November 25, 2019

In contrast with the last 6 months, there were no protests or demonstrations anywhere in the city as voters queued peacefully to choose candidates for the 452 district council seats. A turnout of over 71 per cent delivered victory for the democrats in over 90 per cent of seats, despite what was said to be a strong push by the pro-Beijing campaign. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said he government would ‘’listen to the opinions of members of the public humbly and seriously reflect’’.

The Financial Times this morning reports that big 4 auditor EY has placed about 100 people at its advisory consultancy unit at risk of redundancy; this is because fees have dried up, shrinking by 3 per cent this year.

DAX 30

Almost overbought still on a weekly basis with a decent-sized doji last week just under the 2017 high and early 2018’s record high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 13200; stop above 13375 with a target at 12335.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

A market looking for direction as it veers between retracement resistance levels last week.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7370; stop above 7435. Target 7175.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7300; stop above 7435. Target 7100.

S&P 500

A tiny doji at the top of this year’s potential broadening top coupled with an almost overbought index on a weekly basis is a scary combination. Just in time for this week’s US Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday, ageing, white billionaire businessman and ex-mayor of New York last night waded into the crowded field of wanna-be presidential candidates for the Democratic party.

 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Very disappointing that despite decent bullish momentum on the weekly chart cable gained no traction and is once again inside the pennant chart pattern.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2800. Target 1.3350.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2750. Target 1.3350.

EURO/US DOLLAR

A sorry little specimen as it snakes along the bottom close to multi-decade lows. French trade minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne told the Financial Times that France was ready to broker a ‘’unique’’ trade deal with the UK if certain conditions were met.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1.1050; stop above 1.1100. Target 1.0930.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

 

A marginally more bearish MACD and a market that’s not really where it’s at.  

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1500. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1520. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.