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Market Outlook: Debt accumulation warning from World Bank

‘’Tend to have unhappy endings’’
January 10, 2020

This week the Washington-based World Bank published its bi—annual Global Economic Prospects report, writes CNBC today. They point out that over the last 50 years the world has seen 4 waves of debt accumulation and that the latest one, which started in 2010 was ‘’the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase’’ where historically low interest rates may not limit the chance of financial meltdown. Director of the group Ayhan Kose noted: ‘’The history of past waves of debt accumulation shows that these waves tend to have unhappy ending. In a fragile global environment, policy improvements are critical to minimize the risks associated with the current debt wave.’’ 

Today City AM reports that the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is planning to impose a single interest rate to be applied across all easy access savings accounts at all banks. Christopher Woolard, its director of strategy and competition said: ‘’competition is not working well for many of the 40 million consumers…and we want that to change’’.

DAX 30

Still not overbought though we’re very close to January 2018’s record high at 13600.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of my shorts position for a swift, sharp, stinging loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Momentum of any kind is sadly lacking while trading just shy of May 2018’s record high at 7900.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Almost overbought as @realDonaldTrump Tweets: ‘’STOCK MARKET AT ALL-TIME HIGH! HOW ARE YOUR 401K’s DOING?’’ The rally was fuelled by Apple shares which rallied 2 per cent to $309.63 per share yesterday on news that they had shipped 3.2 million iPhones to China in December, from 2.7 million this time last year, in preparation for the Lunar New Year holiday which starts on the 25th of this month.  

 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out for a very small loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Still struggling with Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1.32—while clinging to old trend line resistance.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.3075; stop below 1.2900. Target 1.3500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Zero momentum as we retreat from December’s high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Bullish MACD shrinking quickly and wondering whether it’ll be enough to maintain support at 1540. If this gives way then we can assume that the move higher this month was a false break and spike high.  

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.