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Market Outlook: World Health Organisation meeting in Geneva

Tuesday 11th and Wednesday 12th February
February 12, 2020

UN News – yes, they have their own media outlet – reports that hundreds of experts, scientists, public health agencies and ministries for health are meeting at WHO Geneva headquarters to ‘share the latest information about the virus and decide how best to confront it’. WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for answers to the many unknowns, adding ‘’this is not a meeting about politics or money. This is a meeting about science’’. What we do know is that they have given the new coronavirus a name: CONVI 19.

City AM newspaper reports today that, based on data collated by Calastone, inflows into UK active equity funds slumped by 93 per cent this January as compared to the previous month. Investors paid in a mere £78 million, something the researchers blamed on the coronavirus and a share price swoon. In comparison, 90 per cent of inflows went to passively run funds.

DAX 30

Momentum keeps marginally bullish as the index inches to a new record high. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said yesterday that the British should not ‘kid themselves’ into securing permanent access to the bloc’s financial services sector.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Stopped out on the squeeze above 13650.

FTSE 100

Still struggling at the 7500 area with no momentum to speak of this month.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7470; stop above 7550. Target 7200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Not yet overbought on the daily chart despite inching to a new record high.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Hauling itself up off the 1.2900 area as hoped, turning the commodity channel index positive.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New long at 1.2970; stop below 1.2870. Target 1.3200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

This year’s slide appears to have been halted just ahead of 1.0875, last year’s low. Not entirely surprising as it had been on course for seven consecutive down days and was already oversold. Perhaps of more interest is the fact it’s close to its lowest levels since 2008 and even so, the Hungarian forint and Romanian leu are at their weakest ever against the euro, while the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona are not far off their weakest against the euro too.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New small long at 1.0920; stop below 1.0865. Target 1.1100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Holding in a tiny range yet the commodity channel index shows absolutely no signs of basing.  

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.