The Bank of England left rates at 0.1 per cent and, to the surprise of some, did not increase the size of its asset purchase programme. Sterling bounced back a bit after a week of losses following the decision. GBPUSD tested support at 1.23 overnight but spiked north of 1.2380 on the Bank of England’s announcement.
The assessment of the economy from the Bank is grim. The BoE said indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at “very low levels” with a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30 per cent. “Consumer confidence has declined markedly, and housing market activity has practically ceased,” the MPC statement noted. Company sales are seen –45 per cent in Q2, with business investment –50 per cent.
In a ‘plausible illustrative economic scenario’, the BoE forecasts a fall in UK-weighted world growth from 2 per cent in 2019 to -13 per cent in 2020, before bouncing back 14 per cent in 2021 and 4 per cent in 2022. Andrew Bailey, the new governor, said there will be some long-term damage to the capacity of the economy, but in the illustrative scenario, these are judged to be relatively small. The Bank seems to be in the –V-shaped reovery camp. For Chris Dillow's assessment of whether we are due a V or L shaped recovery, click here.
Two things stand out, Firstly, more QE is coming, even if it’s not today. Two members of the MPC voted to increase the stock of asset purchases by £100bn at this meeting.
Secondly, the Bank’s assumptions on economic recovery seem rather optimistic – let's hope the plausible scenario is right. I have a nasty feeling it won’t be as there will be deep and lasting changes to the way people shop, work, travel and simply move around. The deep central bank and government support, especially furlough schemes, will make a huge difference, but things won’t be the same. IAG today says the level of demand in 2019 won’t recover properly until 2023.
After a decent start to the trading session yesterday the S&P 500 failed to break above 2890 again and bears took hold later to drive the index down 20pts. Europe was dragged lower into the close with the DAX finishing down 1 per cent. European markets rallied a bit at the open on Thursday but the move lacks much conviction – the US will be the driver today and there futures indicate a bounce. US 10-year bond yields rose to their highest in three weeks, pressuring gold, which has relinquished the $1700 handle to test the $1682 support area. US real yields rose to –0.38 per cent from –0.44 per cent as 10yr Treasuries drove to 0.7 per cent.
Oil is in a holding pattern after the EIA said crude inventories rose less than expected. Crude oil stocks rose 4.6m barrels in the week to May 1st, whilst gasoline inventories fell on a pick-up in driving as states reopen. Domestic oil output in the US fell 200k bpd to 11.9m bpd. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma rose a little over 2m barrels, the smallest increase since late March. Having rallied to $26, WTI retreated but has found near-term support at $23 and is bound by resistance at $24.50. The Brent futures curve indicates a narrowing in contango spreads that indicates markets are less fearful of oversupply in the physical market.
Equities
Another one bites the dust – BT has become the latest casualty in the massacre of FTSE dividends. Read this week's Taking Stock column on Killing sacred cows. Management have taken the axe to this year’s final dividend and all next year’s pay outs. I’ve been arguing they ought to have done this sooner in order to free up capital for infrastructure investment and right the wobbling balance sheet. Net debt stands at nearly £18bn, ballooning from £11bn a year ago, though management say this is largely down to the implementation of IFRS 16. Another headache for BT has been confirmed – the O2 and Virgin Media deal is going ahead. Whether or not you agree that companies ought to be prioritising investment or survival over shareholder returns, the income investor is not going to find life easy for the next 18 months. Investors ran for the hills – already-pressured shares opened 11 per cent lower.
IAG - €535m operating loss before exceptional items in the first quarter but by far the worst is to come with demand collapsing. It booked an exceptional charge in the quarter of €1.325bn on derecognition of fuel and foreign exchange hedges for 2020. This swung reported losses to €1.683bn. IAG at least seems to be able to ride out the storm: management are touting €10bn of cash and undrawn liquidity facilities going into the headroom. Against this they have reduced weekly cash operating costs to €200m from €440m and reduced capex this year by €1.2bn. It won’t need to take delivery of new aircraft if it’s not flying. IAG expects to be running at best at 50 per cent from July but won’t be back to 2019 levels of demand until 2023 at the earliest. IAG rival easyJet was the subject of day trader Michael Taylor's column this week.
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Neil Wilson is chief markets analyst at Markets.com
