We can only assume, therefore, that available information does not extend to civil insurrection, rising bankruptcies, and a double-digit hike in the US unemployment rate.
We know that the performance of the stock market and that of the wider economy do not always coalesce. And given the one-off nature of our current woes, any arguments over what constitutes a leading or lagging market indicator are largely redundant anyway. Conventional wisdom no longer applies when governments have effectively shut down huge swathes of the economy. Even during wartime, productive capacity was merely transferred, rather than closed outright. And some of the volatility that we are seeing could even point to the increasing influence of algorithmic trading.