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Emerging markets for the short term

Emerging markets are a cyclical investment, not a long-term one. And the upcycle might be about to start.
Emerging markets for the short term

Emerging markets might be a better short-term investment than long-term one, if history is any guide.

Even before the Covid-19 induced fall, MSCI’s emerging markets index was lower in US dollar terms than it was in 2007. If you’ve made money on them in recent years, then, it is either because of dividends (which are generally small), the failing pound, or good timing. They’ve not been a great long-term investment.

Which reminds us of something economists have been saying for years – that investors should not buy emerging markets because of their long-term growth prospects. There’s no correlation across countries over longer periods between equity returns and economic growth. One reason for this is simply that a share prices discount growth in advance.

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