European stocks pulled back a little after a rally in the previous session as upward pressure on equities continues to hold firm despite rising case numbers as hopes for a vaccine are the new hopes for a US-China trade deal. Moderna has reported encouraging results from initial trials, while there is a lot of hope being pinned on AstraZeneca’s phase one trials, results of which are due to be published July 20th. Whilst nothing is certain, it seems things are moving in the right direction for a vaccine to emerge by next year.
Shanghai fell 4 per cent and Hong Kong was down almost 2 per cent overnight after a mixed bag of Chinese economic data. US stocks rallied yesterday with the S&P 500 posting its highest close since the June peak, though futures point to the index opening around 20 points lower. The Dow is seen opening about 200 points lower.
UK Company Announcements
| Hays (HAS) | In line with its fellow recruiters, net fee income (also known as gross profit) dropped by 34 per cent in the final quarter to 30 June, and there are “no signs yet of positive fee momentum”. Adjusted operating profit for the year is expected to be between £130m-135m versus £249m a year earlier. The group has £365m of net cash. |
| Biffa (BIFF) | Revenue in June recovered to 83 per cent of pre-Covid-19 levels, up from 70 per cent in April. Following its £100m equity raise, the group has restarted its investment programme and the ‘industrial and commercial’ division has agreed headline terms on three acquisitions. |
| SSE (SSE) | The group continues to expect a £150m-£200m hit to adjusted operating profit this year from Covid-19. It has raised £1bn from issuing hybrid bonds at an all-in cost of 3.8 per cent per year. This replaces the hybrids issued in 2015 at an all-in cost of 4.02 per cent and should cover its financing requirements for the next two years. |
| Marshalls (MSLH) | Revenue for the six months to 30 June dropped 25 per cent year-on-year to £210m. Like-for-like sales in June were down 7 per cent versus a year earlier, an improvement from the 66 per cent shortfall in April. Trading has improved in July. Excluding lease liabilities, it has £54m of net debt, up from £19m at the December year-end. |
| Experian (EXPN) | Organic revenue dipped 2 per cent at constant currencies in the three months to 30 June, a less severe decline than the 5-10 per cent drop it had anticipated back in May. Growth in North America and Brazil was offset by weaker conditions elsewhere. The North American business-to-business (B2B) segmented benefitted from strong mortgage volumes, while the UK and Ireland suffered from a tightening of credit policies and lower lending levels. |
The number of employees on payrolls in the UK fell by 650,000 between March and June, but the worst of the employment is still in front of us. Vacancies are at their lowest level since records began in 2001, earnings fell for the first time in six years, and the ONS noted that the standard definition of unemployment does not include half a million employees temporarily away from their jobs specifically for coronavirus-related reasons, who are receiving no pay while their job was on hold. Unemployment claims were better than feared but we can pin this on furlough schemes which are extending the pretence, delaying the worst and providing a soft landing; but the jobless numbers clearly do not reflect the true extent of what’s coming. Meanwhile the number of hours worked – a key metric for the nation’s productivity – has collapsed.
Chinese GDP grew 3.2 per cent in Q2, up from the –6.8 per cent contraction in Q1, which was better than forecast, albeit we apply the usual caveats about Chinese economic data. Industrial production rebounded 4.8 per cent, but retail sales were down –1.8 per cent vs an expected +0.3 per cent improvement. Richemont flagged a strong recovery in China despite sales globally falling 47 per cent in its first quarter, with luxury goods stocks weaker. Burberry shares fell another 3 per cent.
US data was solid enough, with industrial production +5.4 per cent in June whilst the Empire State manufacturing index hit 17.2, a beat on the 10 expected and a big jump from the –0.2 in the prior month. It remains to be seen to what extent the rate of change in the recovery turns lower as data starts to reflect the ‘second wave’ of cases and the imposing of some fresh lockdown restrictions in some key states. In the Fed’s Beige Book, the Dallas Fed noted that while the outlook has improved, the upward trend in new COVID-19 cases has increased uncertainty. “Economic activity increased in almost all Districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,” the national summary read.
US-China tensions are bubbling away – plans by the White House to impose travel restrictions on millions of Chinese Communist party members is the latest in the saga.
Goldman Sachs earnings crushed expectations with a stunning quarter of trading revenues. Bond trading revenue jump 150 per cent to $4.24bn, while equities trading revenue climbed 46 per cent to $2.94bn. For me all it did was underscore the divergence we are seeing between the real economy and the market, which is benefitting hugely from two-pronged monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Oil couldn’t break free from its narrow range as OPEC+ extended cuts but began tapering with production curbs in August down from 9.7m barrels per day to 7.7m bpd, although the total effective cuts will be around 8.1m-8.3m barrels a day as countries which overproduced in May and June would make additional compensation cuts in August and September. OPEC will need to play this carefully – the longer its barrels are off the market the more it could encourage higher cost US oil to come back on.
Inventory data from the States was bullish with the –7.5m drawdown much higher than the –1.3m expected. Gasoline inventories also fell by more than expected at –3m. WTI (Aug) rallied from the medium-term trend support around $39.20 yesterday to press on the $41 handle but it continues to lack momentum – the CCI divergence on the daily time frame chart points to the rally running out of legs and buyer exhaustion that could call for a further pullback.
Lots coming up today...
ECB meeting: Following the top-up to the PEPP programme in June to €1.35tn, the European Central Bank should be keeping its powder dry with the key EU summit starting tomorrow to hammer out the budget. I expect Christine Lagarde to stress the importance of the fiscal side and leave policy unchanged but stress that ECB’s accommodative position – this is not the time for a discussion of tapering or the details of how much of the envelope you need to use. In a recent interview she said the central bank had ‘done so much that we have quite a bit of time to assess [the incoming economic data] carefully’. The EU recovery fund is more important for EUR crosses right now – agreement this week may push EURUSD beyond the key 1.15 level.
Netflix earnings: The ultimate stay-at-home company, Netflix (NFLX) has made hay in the pandemic, with the stock hitting an all-time high and clearing $520. In the March quarter, Netflix added 15.77m new subscribers, which was more than double the original forecast of 7m net adds. The company has forecast 7.5m new adds in the June quarter and may easily beat this with around 10m subscriber additions. Sequentially lower net adds should not weigh on the stock given the exceptional performance in the first quarter. ARPU could benefit from a depreciation in the dollar since it last reported.
As Netflix itself noted in its Q1 report, there is a lot of unknown to its forecasts. "Given the uncertainty on home confinement timing, this is mostly guesswork. The actual Q2 numbers could end up well below or well above that, depending on many factors including when people can go back to their social lives in various countries and how much people take a break from television after the lockdown." The market expects $6.1bn in sales and EPS of $1.8, with paid subscribers to hit 190m.
US weekly unemployment claims: Last Thursday’s data was better than expected for the week ending 27 June, however the total number of people claiming benefits in all programmes, including both regular state and all others, and including Covid-related programmes, rose 1.4m to 32.9m in the week to Jun 20th. Initial claims today are seen falling again to 1250k from 1314k the previous week, with continuing claims seen down to 17500k from 18062k last week.
US retail sales: Expect to see continued improvement as the economy recovers off the lockdown lows. Retail sales should print another strong reading as consumers binge on their $600-a-week stimulus checks, which are due to finish this month.
Neil Wilson is chief markets analyst at Markets.com
