Lockdowns across Europe seem fully discounted now – markets haven’t really reacted massively to the UK government’s caprice. Stocks hugged the flatline in early trade Monday as all eyes shift to the presidential election, with some bid actually coming through after the initial downtick. The elephant in the Oval Office is Donald Trump: a victory in the election this week for the incumbent would surprise just about everyone. I say this since strategists everywhere seem to be discounting the possibility. Some of the pre-election selling we have seen could be more about an expected Biden win and what that would do to tax and regulation. Polls show a healthy Biden lead for sure, but are tighter in the battleground states. Moreover, there is likely a silent group of shy Trump supporters who would never admit to voting for the president. On the other hand, Biden has a clear lead in four key states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Florida, a new poll shows, which would see the Democrat through with ease. It’s still a contest though, and with states being called or mis-called on inaccurate exit poll figures throughout the election night we ought to prepare for some significant volatility over the course of the evening.
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