Stocks have rallied on news that we could soon have an effective vaccine against Covid-19. Initial optimism is exceedingly high and could fade – we should not be jumping any guns here - but ultimately a vaccine that works effectively would be good for the economy and favours the cyclical parts of the market that we thought were going to struggle as a split Congress meant less stimulus. A working vaccine is positive for cyclicals and value – the reopening trade essentially. The dichotomy in the market is stark: the biggest gainers in a frantic session today are among those stocks worst hit by the pandemic – travel and leisure chiefly, whilst Covid winners are doing poorly. We should be careful in overreacting – but it’s clear the market is forward looking and pricing in recovery in a number of beaten-down areas next year.
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