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Market Outlook: FTSE and sterling wobble despite GDP bump, ITV, Rolls Royce, B&M & more

The FTSE100 is suffering some profit taking in morning trading but mid and small caps are holding up
November 12, 2020

Some payback and a bit of mean reversion: European equity markets slipped in early trade on Thursday as investors trimmed bets on the reopening trade. The FTSE 100 declined around 1 per cent at one stage but 6,300 held, whilst the DAX was holding onto 13,000. In the earlier session, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose and the Dow and Russell 2000 slipped a touch as investors switched back to some tech stocks – a pause in the rotation trade if you like with value handing back something to growth/momentum.  

The dollar has firmed up this week, sending the euro and sterling off their highs, but the greenback was a touch softer in early trade today. WTI broke the 41.50 resistance to briefly touch a 2-month high at $43 but pulled back to the $41.50 region where the past resistance may form support.  

The UK economy grew 15.5 per cent in the third quarter as the since stalled reopening of the economy saw spending and activity bounce back between July and September. Nevertheless, the economy remains 9.7 per cent smaller than it was before the pandemic and the November lockdown will smash the Q4 recovery. Crucially it looks like we are not recovering as quickly as peers. A vaccine cannot come soon enough for the British economy - and for those cyclical components of the market that rely on broad economic activity returning. The good news is that the second wave appears to be cresting in Europe as lockdowns reduce the rate of increase in new cases. Maybe Christmas won’t be cancelled. 

Shares in Moderna, a US biotech company working on a similar MRNA vaccine to that developed by Pfizer, rose over 8 per cent as expectations for its efficacy grew. Pfizer and Biontech’s vaccine was shown to be 90 per cent effective in phase three trials. Dr Fauci said he would not be surprised to see “a similar degree of efficacy” for Moderna’s vaccine. In a statement on Wednesday Moderna said it has enough data accumulated to report on the vaccine by the end of the month.

Sterling is on the hook to a couple of pressures. Brexit talks rumble on with various sources indicating there won’t be anything until next week. The Irish PM says talks have intensified but I’m not really sure what that is supposed to mean given the proximity to the deadline. Anyway, looks like more of the same political grandstanding and posturing. But don’t expect a breakthrough this week. Meanwhile negative rates hover over sterling like a spectre, but Bank of England governor Bailey said this morning that he does not have a date in mind for negative rates review outcome. In other words, it’s in the toolkit but he’s got no plans to go down that way for now. GBPUSD retreated under 1.32 having touch a more than two-month high yesterday above 1.33.  

We’ll be hearing from Bailey and his ECB and Fed counterparts Lagarde and Powell later on today as the three participate in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Riveting stuff. US initial and continuing claims due up this afternoon along with CPI inflation numbers. 

ITV was trading lower after it reported a 16 per cent drop in revenues for the nine months YTD with Studios –19 per cent and Broadcast –13 per cent .Whilst it is seeing encouraging trends heading into Christmas, the outlook remains very tough both from a cyclical and structural perspective. Share of viewing was down 4 per cent, which management blame on the volume of BBC news output – all those Witty-BoJo pressers gobbling up viewer attention for nothing. Online viewing was down 6 per cent with no Love Island. Maybe ITV could get Johnson and Witty and Valance and Sturgeon to do a Covid Island Special next year? Advertising trends improved in Q3 with total advertising spend down 7 per cent year on year. July was down 23 per cent, August up 3 per cent, September down 2 per cent and October down 1 per cent - heading in the right direction but ITV could do with some big sporting events to cover and these are not coming soon. Q4 ad revenues are seen up year-on-year with +6 per cent in November as brands compete for sofa-ridden viewer attention. Shares have done well to move off the summer lows but remain in the value category. 

UK Company Announcements

Rolls-Royce (RR.)

The group is set to raise its desired £2bn from a rights issue. It received acceptances for 94.2 per cent of the shares on offer and the underwriters will now procure subscribers for the remaining shares.

B&M European Value Retail (BME)

Revenues jumped by a quarter to £2.2bn in the first half compared to the same period last year, as consumers flocked to buy bargains with the value retailer. Management has bumped up the interim dividend by more than half to 4.3 pence per share, and has announced a special dividend of 25 pence per share.

Grafton (GFTU)

Revenue increased by 5 per cent year-on-year in the four months to 31 October to £1bn. This came amid strong demand from the residential repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) markets in the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands, and for DIY products from its Woodie’s business. These higher margin sales have boosted gross margins and Grafton is now guiding to a second half adjusted operating profit of £130m-140m. This would be up to a third higher than the second half of 2019.

Marshalls (MSLH)

Sales in October were 5 per cent ahead of last year reflecting strong demand from the domestic market and a return to more normal levels of trading from public sector and commercial customers. Having repaid all furlough support, net debt (excluding lease liabilities) has come down by more than a fifth since the end of June to £43m.

Anexo (ANX)

Asset manager DBAY Advisors has agreed to buy a 29 per cent stake in the company by purchasing shares from executive chairman Alan Sellers, Bond Turner managing director Samantha Moss and sales director Valentina Slater. Paying 150p per share, DBAY will have the right to appoint up to three non-executive directors to the board who will have to give majority consent for any acquisition, disposal or debt financing decisions. Anexo says it will “work closely with DBAY to continue the expansion of its Credit Hire and Legal Services divisions.”

Clipper Logistics (CLG)

The group expects revenue for the six months to 31 October will rise by almost a fifth year-on-year to £300m. This is thanks to strong growth from e-fulfilment logistics as the shift to online shopping continues and the commencement of new contracts. Net debt (excluding lease liabilities) has shrunk by 38 per cent since the April year-end to £28m, equivalent to less than 1 times cash profits (Ebitda).

National Grid (NG.)

Half-year figures detail pandemic-linked effects, including a 14 per cent fall in underlying EPS and a 12 per cent decline in underlying operating profit. An interim dividend of 17p a share has been announced

Legal & General (LGEN)

The asset management-life insurance giant today mounted a defense of its performance record and set out a five-year plan to grow cash, earnings and surplus generation through an ESG-led strategy. After a 'pause' this year, progressive dividend rises are expected from 2021, suggesting the high-yield remains safe.

WH Smith (SMWH)

A full-year pre-tax loss of £69m may have been slightly better than analyst expectations, but the group is now back to significant cash burn under a second UK lockdown.

OneSavings Bank (OSB)

After passing on the full impact of this year's base rate cut to its savers, the specialist lender managed to improve its underlying net interest margin for the three months to September. Hopes to soon return to dividends and no change in economic assumptions will also cheer investors.

Young & Co (YNGA)

The pub and hotel operator fell into an interim pre-tax loss of £21.8m, compared with profits of £24.3m over the same period last year. Trading in the group's managed estate had picked up following the reopening of the sector earlier in the year despite ongoing limits such as social distancing, sitting at nearly three-quarters of last year's activity until all of Young's pubs were closed by fresh restrictions.

Burberry (BRBY)

Burberry's interim pre-tax profits more than halved to £73m compared with first-half profits of £193m in 2019. Over a tenth of its stores are currently closed due to pandemic restrictions across the globe. The shuttering of 60 per cent of stores in April contributed to an increased free cash outflow of £45m, compared with a £29m outflow in last year's first half.

NWF (NWF)

NWF shares resumed trading this morning after the animal feed and fuel producer announced that it had contained a cyber incident announced on 2 November, which prompted the temporary suspension of its shares. NWF shares fell by almost a tenth upon their resumption of trading this morning.

National Express (NEX)

The travel operator has continued its recovery this year, generating around 70 per cent of last year's revenue in October compared with approximately 60 per cent in August. National Express has resumed providing guidance and expects cash profits between £170m to £190m for 2020.

William Hill (WMH)

Apollo Global Management has indicated that it could consider returning to the table for William Hill, should the gambling company's expected merger with Caesars Entertainment fall through. Apollo said that it is not currently intending to make an offer for the business, however.

QinetiQ (QQ.)

Revenue for the six months to 30 September jumped by almost a quarter year-on-year to £603m, boosted by the acquisitions of MTEQ and NSC. Underlying operating profit rose by 16 per cent to £69m. The group has increased its full year guidance, now expecting “low double-digit” revenue growth versus “low single-digit” growth previously. The final 4.1p dividend has been reinstated and QinetiQ will also hand shareholders a 2.2p interim dividend.

Vistry (VTY)

Pre-tax profits this year are on track to be at the top-end of the £130m-£140m guidance range, which should climb to £310m if the market remains stable - a big 'if'. But management intends to resume dividend payments at next year's interim-mark.

Premier Oil (PMO)

While the North Sea producer is insulated by its takeover by Crysaor, it still had bad production news to give shareholders on Thursday, with 2020 guidance cut and net debt up as of 30 October. Guidance is now 61,000-64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) from 65,000-70,000boepd because of problems at the Catcher asset. Net debt is up to $2.1bn (£1.6bn) from $1.97bn at mid-year.

Ideagen (IDEA)

The regulatory software provider expects adjusted cash profits to grow by around a quarter to £10m in the first half compared to the same period last year, in a sign that its revenue growth has not lost momentum.

Mediclinic International (MDC)

Operating profit dropped by more than half to £64m in the six months ended in September, as lockdown blew a hole in the group’s revenues in April. Demand for elective procedures has started to recover, but management is still cautious on the outlook for 2021.

 

Neil Wilson is chief markets analyst at Markets.com