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Next week's economics: 3 - 7 May

Next week should bring evidence of a strong economic upturn, led by the US
Next week's economics: 3 - 7 May

The US economy is recovering strongly, next week’s numbers should show. Friday’s figures could show that more than half a million workers were added to company payrolls in April, pushing the jobless rate below 6 per cent – although this is still well above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5 per cent. And on Monday, the ISM’s survey could show that manufacturing output is rising at its fastest rate since 2004

That same survey, though, might also show that companies are being restricted by shortages of raw materials, parts and even some skilled labour. This – allied to rising prices of some raw materials – will fuel fears of inflation, especially as we’ve yet to see the full impact of President Biden’s fiscal stimulus.

Things are also improving in the eurozone. Final purchasing managers’ surveys should confirm the flash ones, which showed a record increase in manufacturing output alongside a modest expansion in services. And official German statistics could show a rise in industrial output, albeit after two successive monthly drops. This would, however, still leave output some 5 per cent below its pre-pandemic level, which itself followed two years of stagnation.

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