The UK recovery is being held back by shortages and rising prices, next week’s numbers could tell us.
The CBI’s quarterly survey is likely to say that order books are very high, but that firms are struggling to meet demand because of difficulties finding parts and some workers. Because of this, business confidence is falling: the survey largely predates the surge in gas prices.
Purchasing managers on Friday are likely to confirm this, reporting that growth in both manufacturing and services has slowed recently because of rising costs and shortages. This problem is not confined to the UK: the same day, purchasing managers will tell a similar story in the eurozone.