Today's Markets: European stocks take cue from positive US and Asian sessions, GSK wait-and-see

FTSE 100 trades above 7,600 to start the day, and earnings from GSK strike upbeat tone

February 9, 2022

FTSE 100 trading above 7,600 again
GSK results cautiously optimistic
Harley-Davidson and Peloton among US high risers

Markets

European stock markets made broad gains in early trade on Wednesday, buoyed by a strong lead from tech after a rally in the US and a positive handover from Asia. The FTSE traded above 7,600 again, trading +0.6 per cent or so, having nursed a small loss on Tuesday despite the positive open saw it trade at its highest intra-day level since the pandemic began.

GSK (GSK) results out, shares flat: upbeat tone overall but investors need more about the strategy. Pharmaceuticals sales +4 per cent £17.7 billion, vaccines -3 per cent to £6.8 billion, adjusted operating profits -1 per cent lower at £8.8 billion. Guidance for 2022 – increased investment in R&D, sales to rise between 5 and 7 percent, operating profits seen +12-14 per cent, excluding any contribution from Covid-19 solutions. Dame Emma Walmsley, CEO, touted “a step-change in growth” as well as “multiple R&D catalysts, including milestones on up to 7 key late-stage pipeline assets”. Really investors are waiting for the capital markets day at the end of Feb to see what the new strategy looks like; oft repeated but the shares have done nothing over the last 5 years in terms of capital appreciation. Smurfit Kappa (SKG) shares rose over 2 per cent on solid final year results: revenues +18 per cent, EBITDA growth of 13 per cent, margins at 16.8 per cent, down from 17.7 per cent last year due to strong input cost inflation. PZ Cussons (PZC) rallied 5 per cent as reported profit doubled in the half-year to the end of November. Revenues from continuing operations declined over 9 per cent but the company showed good pricing power as it improved margins. Despite significant commodity, freight cost and FX headwinds, gross margins improved 40bps.

US markets rallied on some decent corporate earnings and even as the blowout in bond yields continued; the yield on the benchmark 10yr Treasury note finished lower at 1.93 per cent, having traded above 1.96 per cent. Megacap tech was well bid, helping the Nasdaq to climb 1.3 per cent, whilst the Dow Jones rose 1 per cent and the S&P 500 almost matched that gain. Earnings were important and trumped concerns about inflation and rates. Harley-Davidson (HOG) rose 15 per cent on a surprise rise in profits. Peloton (PTON) leapt 25 per cent as it ousted its CEO John Foley, reported a bigger-than-expected loss and slashed its guidance; bad news had been well and truly priced so the change at the top is seen as a positive... or could just be some short covering. Likelihood is the company gets bought by one of the big tech names like Amazon. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was up 8 per cent after-hours as it beat expectations on earnings – pricing power was key. Lyft (LYFT) fell 55 after-hours despite beating on the top and bottom line as it reported a decline in the number of active riders. So far about three-quarters of the companies on the S&P 500 that have thus far reported have beaten EPS expectations. Another 200 to go...

Companies

Rental collections encouraging for Grainger

Rental provider Grainger (GRI) recorded a 97 per cent occupancy rate in its rental sector portfolio for the first four months of its financial year to 31 January. Rental collection was at a commensurate level, while like-for-like revenue growth stood at 3.2 per cent. The FTSE 250-listed constituent has also benefited from sales prices, which remain ahead of valuations by between 1-2 per cent. MR

Menzies refuses 50 per cent cash premium offer

After the directors of aviation transport company John Menzies (MNZS) decried the “opportunistic” 510p per share cash offer from Kuwait company National Aviation Services (NAS), its one-third share price leap on Wednesday morning must have had them at least slightly grateful for the approach. The NAS offer valued the company at £469mn, and the 510p offer was at a premium of more than 50 per cent on Tuesday’s share price.

Nonetheless, the Menzies board said the offer came at a time when “management actions” are “not yet reflected in [our] valuation”. NAS specialises in airport services like engineering and plane loading. It has not made a formal or binding offer. AH

Barratt Developments looks to reduce dividend cover

Barratt Developments (BDEV) saw a marginal uptick in statutory profits to £433m in the six months to 31 December, and has increased its interim dividend to 11.2p per share from 7.5p. It has also taken the decision to implement a phased reduction in dividend cover from 2.5x in FY 2021 to 1.75x in FY 2024 – read into that what you will.

Completions were down by 11.1 per cent on the comparable period, though the housebuilder notes that comparisons are skewed due to the “unusually high completions in HY21 due to Covid”.

The company remains on track to deliver total home completions of 18,000 - 18,250 in FY 2022 (including those from joint ventures), an increase of 250 homes on previous guidance.

Barratt drove up the adjusted gross margin by 120 basis points, but costs give cause for concern. Management is guiding for an increase in total build cost inflation (including infrastructure, materials and labour) to c. 6 per cent for the full year.

The second half is off to a promising start, with 291 net private reservations per average week (2021: 264, 2020: 294). MR

Strategic Equity Capital comes out swinging after Odyssean merger offer

The board of UK smaller companies trust Strategic Equity Capital (SEC) has pushed back against a takeover bid from its rival Odyssean Investment Trust (OIT) by setting out a series of alternative measures aimed at pleasing shareholders.

Subject to shareholder approval, Strategic Equity Capital would carry out a tender offer of up to 10 per cent of assets, at net asset value (NAV) minus costs. This would replace a previously announced tender offer, due in November 2022, which would have been implemented at a three per cent discount to NAV minus costs.

Having done the tender offer, the trust would also carry out a share buyback for up to an additional 9 per cent of the current NAV, with shares bought during 2022 at a discount to NAV of greater than 5 per cent. A new buyback policy would also be put in place to return 50 per cent of the proceeds from profitable realisations at greater than a 5 per cent discount on an ongoing basis in each financial year. This would come into force in the year to 30 June 2023.

Elsewhere...

Pandemic over? Fauci says full blown bit is over… Study says Omicron booster not needed. Pfizer (PFE) results + guidance a disappointment (shares –2.8 per cent). Right now, the idea of endless boosters seems highly unlikely… big change from last year. Moderna (MRNA) is down almost 70 per cent from its peak Delta fear high.

Volatility over? JPM says: inability to move on Friday’s strong payrolls reveals prevalence of bearish sentiment. However as overly bearish sentiment clears, we expect the market to lift. Volatility moderating and expect strong equity inflows from systematic investors... Favours EM and China equities.

Macro picture: Maersk (CPH: MAERSK-B) warns supply chain troubles will persist in the first half, but start to ease in the second half of the year. FOMC members Bowman and Mester speak today, while there is also a 10yr bond auction due later. USD has pulled back a touch this morning, counter-trend rally over? EURGBP weaker for a third day... hawkish twist from ECB last weekend unwinding a bit post the Lagarde and Knott comments... yet peripheral spreads still widening, which reflects concerns about the state of debt servicing in some countries. US CPI inflation is the main focus this week – due tomorrow.

Tesla (TSLA) stuff: apparently the company quietly removed steering components from new cars over chip shortage fears... so when we wonder how come Tesla managed to navigate the chip shortage better than others, we have our answer! Apparently "at least one internal discussion was said to be had on whether or not Tesla should inform customers. Tesla reportedly decided to keep quiet on the matter." Of course they did... Meanwhile Joe Biden finally touted Tesla as the biggest EV maker in the US, having put Musk’s nose out of joint for failing to praise the company’s leadership.

Oil turning over at last... called it, but for how long? Bearish MACD present at last... would like to see move confirmed. Failure to catch any bid on a surprise draw in inventories in the API figures of 2m barrels, versus the expected 400k barrel build, appears bearish. Near term, overbought technicals, the potential Iranian nuclear deal and the absence of fresh Russia-Ukraine geopolitical premia indicate pullback could have deeper to run, perhaps to $80/81. Longer term, the structural deficit in the market has everyone calling for new highs. JPM again: "We expect oil to overshoot to $125/bbl in 2022 and $150/bbl in 2023".