Midway through 2020, Avon Protection (AVON) hived off its Milkrite InterPuls business to DeLaval Holding for around £180mn on a cash and debt-free basis. Bosses had determined that a move away from the production of artificial ruminant teats would enable the group to become further entrenched in military and first responder markets, aided by an intensified focus on respiratory and ballistic protection. They may have had a point. Military contracts are generally predictable, multi-year affairs, providing greater clarity on sales and cash flows. Higher-tech kit usually generates decent margins and the US military doesn’t usually scrimp on protective gear for its service personnel.
The Wiltshire-based group has been trading for 137 years, ironically coming into existence in the same year that Gottlieb Daimler was granted a German patent for his single-cylinder water-cooled engine design, and King Leopold II of Belgium established the Congo Free State as a personal possession, both of which were highly significant developments for the rubber industry. At various points along the way, Avon has manufactured everything from conveyor belts to diving suits, so the move could be viewed as part of an evolutionary process – companies have always repurposed their manufacturing capabilities to suit end-markets. And you could even say that Avon’s central input over the years had provided a degree of flexibility.
Avon has determined that its growth prospects are best served by the military alone, but in the age of specialisms it’s sometimes worth remembering that having different products can spread risk between markets. At the end of last year, the board took the decision to shut down the body armour business following news that its Vital Torso Protection plates had failed initial US Army tests.
The closure fed through to a $46.8mn (£35.3mn) impairment in its full-year 2021 accounts, and a consequent net earnings loss, so the shares duly headed south. You can now pick them up at about a third of their 12-month high of 3,660p recorded in April 2021. Nonetheless, it would be dishonest to suggest that the decision to streamline the business model was wholly ill-conceived, especially given that it came on the heels of two new contracts from the US Department of Defense worth in the region of $66mn.
The Milkrite InterPuls arm had generated 28 per cent of sales in the group’s half-year results published shortly before the decision to divest. It also accounted for the entire statutory half-year operating profit of £3m, after the Protection segment was lumbered with increased depreciation and amortisation charges. Perhaps the rationale may become clearer when you consider that the Protection order backlog was 22 times larger than that of the dairy-supply business, although that is largely attributable to the nature of the typical contractual arrangements for both segments.
Whatever the reasoning behind the move, it has been a sobering experience for investors. But respite is at hand – or at least partial respite. Avon Protection has announced the award of a contract to supply the US Defense Logistics Agency with the second-generation Advanced Combat Helmet. It is worth a maximum of $204mn over a five-year period, being a one-year base period with a maximum value of $46mn plus four further one-year extension options. As mentioned, the typical long-dated nature of these deals is certainly a plus point, and analysts at Jefferies believe that it “will also (hopefully) put to bed any concerns that investors will have surrounding Avon's relationship with the US Department of Defense”. The broker does not expect any change to consensus, but the contract “helps to underpin longer-term forecasts”.
If anything, the failure of the Vital Torso Protection plates could highlight the dangers of being a small fish in a very capital-intensive pond. It is not as if the likes of BAE Systems (BA.) and Lockheed Martin (US: LMT) don’t botch defence contracts from time to time. Yet they are better able to wear set-backs simply due to their scale – not too many eggs in one basket, to mix in another unwanted metaphor.
Jefferies may be right about investor perceptions over Avon’s relationship with the Pentagon, but that could open it up to the attentions of bigger pond dwellers. The recent experience of Ultra Electronics (ULE) and, indeed, Cobham before it, show that UK contractors remain on the menu. Avon’s share price cratered once doubts over body armour business emerged, but it closed out FY 2021 with net cash (ex-lease liabilities) of $26.8mn and a residual order book of $117mn. You have got to imagine that it’s in play.
