Despite apparent progress made in peace talks this week and a promise of reduced military attacks by Russia in Ukraine, doubts remain about Russia's true intentions and whether it will keep its word. An end to the war is not in sight, and investors remain very much at the mercy of instability and volatility with the winds of change and discontent blowing strong.
Thanks to the pandemic, economies have lost around two years of growth and are still playing catch-up. New patterns of behaviour, and rising levels of disruption from Covid – something I experienced through cancelled trains and tortuously slow airport security checks last weekend – continue to cause ripples.
Then there’s inflation. From a small flame that had central banks concerned but not alarmed several months ago, inflation has roared into life. Whatever your own views on inflation and whichever camp you stand in, we can all agree that it has become a major problem and is being fanned further by the winds of war. Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey warned this week that the invasion had raised the risk that we could be moving into a period of stagflation.