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FTSE 350: Beverage companies have not lost their fizz

The UK's largest listed beverage companies have successfully managed the transition towards less sugary drinks
January 24, 2019

This April will mark the one year anniversary of the UK's levy on sugary beverages. It’s still unclear how much consumers have been motivated to change their drink consumption habits in light of the added tax, and how much of this extra charge has been absorbed by the producers or passed down to customers. What is clear is that the drinks makers did not take the tax change lightly. In the run-up to its introduction, companies such as Britvic (BVIC) and AG Barr (BAG) reformulated their products to have less sugar. We think 2019 will be the year where those changes pay off.

The Britvic portfolio is now packed with well-known, low-or-no sugar brands such as J2O and Robinsons, as well as drinks licensed from PepsiCo, such as PepsiMax. The consumer shift towards lower sugar consumption, prompted not only by the tax changes but also by the general desire for healthier lifestyles, hasn’t meant that AG Barr has disregarded its signature orange IRN-BRU fizzy drink. The traditional version may be loaded with sugar, but its lighter version contains none at all.

While the push to provide consumers with lower-sugar products is difficult to argue with, the timing of the sugar tax is rather unfortunate. The price of sugar has plummeted over the past year after the EU quotas on production were lifted, leading to a surge in supply. While this would have led to lower input costs for the drinks makers, the spend on reformulation should help these businesses stay relevant over the longer term. The reformulation spend resulted in a slight margin hit to AG Barr last year, but analysts think this should recover in the coming year.

Sugar isn’t the only thing that consumers have been avoiding, as the increasingly teetotal tendencies of some age groups and demographics show. Not one to miss a growing gap in the market, Britvic has launched its own line of premium alcohol substitutes under its Monte Rosso and Thomas & Evans brands, although it would make sense if its other brands should benefit from increased abstinence, too.

Such a trend might be worse news for booze makers like Diageo (DGE). But fortunately for the global spirits company, those who continue to indulge tend to go for more premium options. These products are invariably pricier, which should translate into better profit margins.

Management at Diageo is clearly preparing the business for this trend to continue – in November it sold 19 of its non-core brands, including Goldschlager, Romana Sambuca and Parrot Bay, to Sazerac for $550m (£423m). Chief executive Ivan Menezes said the deal enables the group to have “even greater focus on the faster growing premium-and-above brands in the US spirits portfolio”, which now make up around two-thirds of Diageo’s portfolio.

 

NamePrice (p)Market cap (£m)12-month change (%)Trailing PEForward PEDividend Yield (%)Last IC View
Barr (AG)802913.8420.4224.923.71.96Hold, 723p, 26 Sep 2018
Britvic8702304.548.7514.913.93.24Buy, 824p, 03 Jan 2019
Coca-cola HBC25259260.826.9921.2191.88n/a
Diageo2732.566055.134.3721.720.12.39Buy, 2,787p, 22 Nov 2018