Full-year results for Glencore (GLEN) were overshadowed by a decision to cap future output of thermal and coking coal at current levels, scotching any expansion of a high-margin business responsible for a third of the commodity group’s mining division cash profits in 2018.
The move, which Glencore says reflects its response to climate change and “commitment to a low-carbon economy”, has clearly been designed to placate institutional investors concerned at the regulatory and financial risks posed by Glencore’s coal-rich portfolio. Capital preference will now be given to commodities such as copper, nickel and cobalt, where demand is expected to grow with the rise of electric vehicles and the electrification of the global economy.
Arguably, the horse has already bolted. The move is also consistent with Glencore’s bullishness towards coal, long prefaced as a “cigar-butt” investment in a price-resilient commodity undergoing long-term demand decline. What’s more, additions in Australia mean the group expects to produce 145m tonnes of coal this year, a 20 per cent increase on 2017.
Beyond the headlines, preliminary numbers were a little soft. The normally strong marketing division saw a 17 per cent dip in adjusted operating profits to $2.4bn (£1.8bn), while rising prices were muted by higher costs, and net earnings were rocked by $1.6bn of non-cash impairments.
On average, analysts expect earnings of 40¢ per share in 2019, down from 44¢ last year.
GLENCORE (GLEN) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 305p | MARKET VALUE: | £42.5bn | |
TOUCH: | 305-305.2p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 410p | LOW: 268p |
DIVIDEND YIELD: | 5.0% | PE RATIO: | 17 | |
NET ASSET VALUE: | 328¢ | NET DEBT: | 32% |
Year to 31 Dec | Turnover ($bn) | Pre-tax profit ($bn) | Earnings per share (¢) | Dividend per share (¢) |
2014 | 221 | 4.25 | 18.0 | 18 |
2015 | 147 | -8.38 | -39.0 | nil |
2016 | 153 | -0.55 | -5.0 | 7 |
2017 | 205 | 6.92 | 41.0 | 20 |
2018 | 220 | 4.68 | 24.0 | 20 |
% change | +7 | -32 | -41 | - |
Ex-div: | 25 Apr | |||
Payment: | 23 May | |||
£1=$1.30 |