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Year of "correction" for ABF

Associated British Foods reported sales and profit growth across all divisions apart from its sugar business after changes in EU regulation pushed down prices
April 17, 2018

The sugar business proved to be a sour spot for Associated British Foods (ABF) during the first half. The EU’s quotas on sugar production and constraints on exports were abolished at the end of September last year, leading to a surge in production. This extra supply pushed down the price producers could charge for their crop and has made the EU a net exporter of sugar.

IC TIP: Hold at 2,691p

Finance director John Bason has dubbed it the “year of the big correction” after EU sugar prices fell by about a quarter, and he expects more volatility now it's linked to the global market price. ABF’s sugar division reported a 12 per cent decline in sales at constant currency to £938m during the first half, while operating profit fell by a quarter to £90m. Prospects don’t look any sweeter in the second half, either. Sales growth is expected in all areas of the business – apart from sugar.

Elsewhere, ABF reported sales and profit growth across all its other divisions. Primark continued to be the biggest contributor to group revenue, with sales up 7 per cent at constant currency to £3.5bn and a 4 per cent improvement in adjusted operating profit to £341m. This performance was driven by an increase in selling space of 0.4m sq ft over the period, bringing the total number of stores to 352 across 14.3m sq ft of space.

Strip out the impact of this added square footage, and like-for-like sales fell 1.5 per cent at Primark, which was blamed on unseasonably warm weather in October and freezing temperatures in late February. Profits are expected to accelerate during the second half, as is margin improvement; operating margins contracted from 10 per cent to 9.8 per cent during the reported period. Mr Bason said the improvement should stem from more favourable currency rates as the pound and the euro strengthen against the US dollar.

Analysts at Liberum expect EPS of 134p in the year to September 2018, compared with 127p in FY2017.

ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (ABF)  
ORD PRICE:2,691pMARKET VALUE:£21.3bn
TOUCH:2,689-2,691p12-MONTH HIGH:3,387pLOW: 2,386p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.5%PE RATIO:20
NET ASSET VALUE:1,108pNET CASH:£123m
Half-year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20177.3086780.511.4
20187.4260360.911.7
% change+2-30-24+3
Ex-div:7 Jun   
Payment:6 Jul