Join our community of smart investors

Marston's scales back expansion

The pub group is heeding caution following oversupply in the casual dining sector
November 21, 2018

The dining-out market is already competitive, but uncertainties surrounding Brexit and rapid cost inflation have made operating in the sector more difficult. In response, Marston’s (MARS) has decided to scale back expansion plans for the current financial year. Ten new pubs and bars will open during the year to September 2019, down from a previously planned 15. Chief executive Ralph Findlay called this an "appropriate level of caution" given the oversupply of casual dining locations in the UK, not to mention climbing business rates and the new national living wage.

IC TIP: Buy at 99.7p

Those 10 sites won't be in London or other major city centres either, but instead in suburban areas, which offer cheaper start-up costs and fewer competitors. According to Mr Findlay, these locations carry less risk as they're less dependent on transient or tourist-led custom. Only around 6 per cent of Marston's staff are from the EU (ex-UK) too.

Analysts at Numis expect pre-tax profits of £108m during the year to September 2019, giving EPS of 14.1p, up from £104m and 13.9p in FY2018.

MARSTON'S (MARS)   
ORD PRICE:99.7pMARKET VALUE:£632m
TOUCH:99.4-99.9p12-MONTH HIGH:121pLOW: 89p
DIVIDEND YIELD:7.5%PE RATIO:14
NET ASSET VALUE:151p*NET DEBT:145%
Year to 29 SepTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20140.82-59.2-8.96.7
20150.8831.34.17.0
20160.9480.812.77.3
20171.0110014.27.5
20181.1454.37.17.5
% change+13-46-50-
Ex-div:13 Dec   
Payment:28 Jan   
*Includes intangible assets of £300m or 47p per share