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Agency numbers slip at Rightmove

A drop in the customer segment led shares to drop, despite growth overall
March 4, 2019

Rightmove (RMV) is the big fish in its market. Its online real estate portal lists a million UK residential properties, creating a near-captive customer base that was prepared to swallow further price increases last year, despite a tough backdrop for estate agents.

IC TIP: Hold at 456p

Still, the investor reaction to full-year results was negative, and apparently focused on the 2 per cent decline in the agency network to 17,328, even if this was offset by strong growth in the New Homes business. Pre-empting this response, management emphasised Rightmove's insulation from the property market cycle “except in the most extreme circumstances”, a point underlined by a 9 per cent rise in revenue per advertiser to £1,005 per month. The group also continues to win the online battle for eyeballs: website traffic grew 4 per cent, while the group increased its share of time spent on the top four property portals by three percentage points to 76 per cent.

However, it is not clear how sustainable this is, or where the saturation point lies. against the backdrop of a cooling housing market and a decline in transactions, 3 per cent fewer leads were generated for customers in 2018, in turn asking even more of the premium data packages sold. Still, Rightmove's claim that its Optimiser customers' greater share of voice helps them list "twice as many properties" as average points to one way prices could yet rise again in 2019.

Broker Numis is forecasting adjusted pre-tax profits of £222m, giving EPS of 20p in 2019, from £203m and 18.3p in 2018.

RIGHTMOVE (RMV)   
ORD PRICE:456pMARKET VALUE:£4.07bn
TOUCH:455-456p12-MONTH HIGH:540pLOW: 415p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.4%PE RATIO:26
NET ASSET VALUE:1.4pNET CASH:£15.8m
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)*
201416712298.035.0
201519213711443.0
201622016213851.0
201724317815.75.80
201826719817.86.50
% change+10+11+14+12
Ex-div:02 May   
Payment:31 May   
*2017 EPS and DPS restated for a 10-to-one stock split