Aim-traded shares in Kape Technologies (KAPE:208.5p), a provider of cyber security software, have smashed through my 200p target price after doubling in value since I last suggested buying, at 100p, two months ago (‘Three buying opportunities’, 18 March 2020). I first recommended buying, at 47.9p, in my 2017 Bargain Shares portfolio, so long-term holders have more than quadrupled their money. The re-rating is fully justified as this morning's trading update highlights.
Firstly, home working and remote working restrictions imposed on billions of people across the globe due to the Covid-19 pandemic has led to increased adoption of Kape’s cyber security software (which protects data security and privacy against piracy and phishing attacks). . Moreover, management report that demand for virtual private network (VPN) solutions that encrypt and secure internet connections has been rising notably in both North America and Europe, regions which account for almost three quarters of Kape’s annual revenue. Indeed, new monthly sign ups increased by 19 per cent last month within the digital privacy segment
Secondly, even before the lockdown restrictions, industry experts were predicting that the digital privacy market would grow by 50 per cent by 2022, thus providing a strong tailwind to Kape’s business. It’s a safe bet to assume that growth rates will be even higher now as hundreds of millions of internet users try to protect themselves from the marked increase in cyber and phishing attacks. The data security breach of 9m online customer accounts at budget airline EasyJet (EZJ) this week highlights the need for both companies and consumers to be extra vigilant.
| 2017 Bargain shares portfolio performance | |||||
| Company name | TIDM | Opening offer price on 03.02.17 (p) | Bid price on 21.05.20 (p) or exit price (see notes) | Dividends | Total return (%) |
| BATM Advanced Communications (see note seven) | BVC | 19.25 | 94.2 | 0 | 425.4 |
| Kape Technologies (formerly Crossrider) | KAPE | 47.9 | 207 | 3.55 | 339.6 |
| Cenkos Securities (see note two) | CNKS | 88.425 | 106 | 9.5 | 30.6 |
| Manchester & London Investment Trust (see note three) | MNL | 291.65 | 377 | 3.0 | 28.4 |
| Avingtrans | AVG | 200 | 210 | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| H&T | HAT | 289.75 | 290 | 27.1 | 9.4 |
| Chariot Oil & Gas (see note one) | CHAR | 8.29 | 1.75 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Management Consulting Group (see note five) | MMC | 6.183 | 6 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Bowleven (see note four) | BLVN | 28.9 | 5.5 | 15 | -6.1 |
| Tiso Blackstar Group (see note six) | TBG | 55 | 10.1 | 0.54 | -80.7 |
| Average | 76.0 | ||||
| FTSE All-Share Total Return | 6485 | 6268 | -3.3 | ||
| FTSE AIM All-Share Total Return | 977 | 954 | -2.4 | ||
| Notes: | |||||
| 1. Simon Thompson advised selling two-thirds of the Chariot Oil & Gas holding at 17.5p on 3 April 2017 ('Bargain shares on a tear', 3 April 2017). Return reflects the profit booked on this sale. Simon subsequently advised using some of the proceeds from the share sale to participate in the one-for-8 open offer at 13p a share in March 2018 which is taken into account in the total return ('On the earnings beat', 5 Mar 2018). Simon turned buyer of the shares at 4p on 17 April 2019 when he suggested using the profit banked to reinvest in the shares ('Chariot's North African adventure', 17 April 2019). | |||||
| 2. Simon Thompson advised selling the Cenkos Securities holding at 106p on 3 April 2017 and the 106p price quoted in the above table is the exit price on the holding ('A profitable earnings beat', 3 Apr 2017). Please note that Simon has since included the shares in his 2020 Bragain Shares Portfolio and rates the shares a buy. | |||||
| 3. Manchester and London Investment Trust paid total dividends of 3p a share on 2 May 2017. Simon Thompson then advised selling half of the holding at 366.25p on 26 June 2017 ('Top slicing and running profits', 26 June 2017), and selling the remaining half at 377p ('Bargain shares second chance', 17 August 2017). The 377p price quoted in the table is the final exit price. | |||||
| 4. Simon Thompson advised banking profits on half your holdings in Bowleven shares at 33.75p, and running the balance ahead of drilling news at the Etinde prospect in Cameroon in the second quarter of 2018 (‘Hitting pay dirt', 9 Apr 2018). The company subsequently paid out a special dividend of 15p a share on 8 February 2019 and Simon then advised selling the balance of the holding at 5.5p ('Taking stock and profits', 9 December 2019). | |||||
| 5. Simon Thompson advised to sell Management Consulting's shares at 6p in February 2018 (‘How the 2017 Bargain share portfolio fared’, 2 February 2018). The price quoted in the table is the 6p exit price. | |||||
| 6. Tiso Blackstar has transferred its UK listing to the Johanesburg Stock Exchange. Price quoted is sterling equivalent bid price at current exchange rates. | |||||
| 7. Simon Thompson advised banking profits on half your holdings in BATM shares at 49.9p, and running the balance for free ('Bargain Shares: Exploiting pricing anomalies and top-slicing', 3 December 2018). Simon then advised buying back the shares at 43.5p ('BATM armed for a re-rating', 11 July 2019). Total return takes into account these trades. | |||||
| Source: London Stock Exchange share prices. | |||||
Thirdly, there is scope for earnings upgrades driven by ongoing organic growth and by successfully marketing new products and cross selling existing ones to a significantly enlarged customer base following the acquisition of Colorado-based Private Internet Access, a leading provider of VPN solutions.
Fourthly, management reiterated guidance which points to underlying pre-tax profit trebling to $31.4m, and earnings per share (EPS) almost doubling to 13.4¢ (11p). Bumper operating cash flow should cut net borrowings by 38 per cent to $20m by year-end which means a higher level of economic interest in the company for shareholders. Kape has also completed a recent debt refinancing that has reduced interest charges in half.
Fifthly, the shares registered an important triple top chart break-out when they smashed through the 200p resistance level into blue sky territory. On a 2020 price/earnings (PE) ratio of 18.8, and with potential to deliver double-digit EPS growth in 2021 and beyond, I lift my target price to 275p. Buy.
■ Simon Thompson's latest book Successful Stock Picking Strategies and his previous book Stock Picking for Profit can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order. The books are being sold through no other source and are priced at £16.95 each plus postage and packaging of £3.25 [UK].
Special offer: Both books can be purchased for the special price of £25 plus discounted postage and packaging of only £3.95. The books include case studies of Simon Thompson’s market beating Bargain Share Portfolio companies outlining the investment characteristics that made them successful investments. Simon also highlights many other investment approaches and stock screens he uses to identify small-cap companies with investment potential, too. Details of the content of both books can be viewed on www.ypdbooks.com.
Simon Thompson was named 2019 Small Cap Journalist of the year at the 2019 Small Cap Awards.
