Tap into Grainger's rental growth opportunity

The affordability challenges of buying a home have driven demand for private rented sector (PRS) homes, which accounted for 20.6 per cent of UK households in 2019, according to research by the Office for National Statistics, up from 13 per cent in 2007. That figure is forecast by estate agency Knight Frank to rise to 22 per cent by 2023. High demand for Grainger’s PRS assets is evident in an occupancy rate of 97.5 per cent as of the end of September. That – coupled with rent reviews on its regulated tenancies – helped boost rental income on a like-for-like basis by 3.6 per cent. The rate of underlying rental growth for the PRS portfolio accelerated to 3.4 per cent last year, up from 3 per cent in 2018. 

Grainger’s PRS portfolio consists of 5,597 homes, representing 58 per cent of the total asset base. This is expected to grow to 76 per cent if all 9,104 homes in the pipeline are built. The group aims to secure rental income at gross yields on cost of between 6 and 7.5 per cent on that pipeline. Around 1,000 of these homes are expected to be delivered in 2020, which would add £6m in annual rental income. A joint venture with Transport for London, established last year, could result in the group providing an additional 3,000 homes – and gaining £24m in annual rental income – by 2025. In total, the pipeline has the potential to lift net rent by 141 per cent to £169m at an estimated development cost of £2bn. 

Deriving a greater proportion of income from rent, rather than from selling homes, should also feed through to greater dividend payments, given management has pledged to pay out 50 per cent of net rental income to shareholders each year. Analysts at Panmure Gordon forecast an annual dividend of 8.2p a share by 2022, 58 per cent higher than last year and representing a 2.7 per cent yield. This is based on net rental income reaching around £100m that year, against trading profits of £67m. 

That shift should also increase the security of dividend payments, although the company will still have exposure to the fortunes of the UK residential housing market. Profits from property disposals were down 17 per cent last year, although management said that was due to a lower vacancy rate, with the time it took for properties to sell stable at 111 days. The final ‘development for sale’ contract was completed last year, and Grainger will now focus on developing investment assets to retain for the long term. These assets are typically built by third-party developers and forward-funded by Grainger, which makes building less capital intensive.

In an environment where interest rates show no sign of being raised in the near term, institutional investors searching for yield have flocked to the UK’s private rented sector, seeing opportunity in the chronic lack of rental housing stock. By the end of June 143,000 homes were completed or in planning, according to research by Savills, up from just 15,000 in the pipeline at the start of 2013. Given Grainger’s existing PRS management platform and expertise, that could make the group a potential takeover target for a large global institutional investor.

The sector has already grabbed the attention of CBRE, the world’s largest real estate services group, after it entered the PRS market in July by agreeing the £267m takeover of Telford Homes, a housebuilder that had shifted its focus from building homes for private sale to constructing rental developments for large investors.