What will the events of 2020 mean for investments in emerging markets? The answer to that question is yet to be written. But there is little evidence that governments and economies in the developed world have handled the Covid-19 test any better than poorer nations. A charitable view, therefore, is that the playing field looks a lot more level.
“We absolutely think it should shine a light on the differences between emerging and developed markets,” says Ashmore (ASHM) finance director Tom Shippey, who highlighted developing economies’ demographics and typically higher rates of interest and inflation as differentiators.
But while those features might help some nations address fiscal expansion, it is unlikely to hold back investors’ flight to safety in a crisis. This dynamic partly explains why just 17 per cent of Ashmore’s assets under management (AuM) outperformed their benchmarks in the 12 months to June. Compounded by client nerves, AuM dropped 9 per cent to $83.6bn (£65.3bn).
Unsurprisingly, given the volatility in February and March, net inflows of $5.7bn over the year were slightly eclipsed by net outflows, as institutional clients liquidated holdings into US dollars.
Numis, which has the stock on a ‘sell’ rating and forecasts earnings of 22.5p per share for FY2021, flagged that the results included “no substantive comment on current trading”. Mr Shippey told us benchmarked-performance has improved on one, three and five-year horizons since the period end.
ASHMORE (ASHM) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 391p | MARKET VALUE: | £2.78bn | |
TOUCH: | 390.2-391p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 582p | LOW: 282p |
DIVIDEND YIELD: | 4.3% | PE RATIO: | 14 | |
NET ASSET VALUE: | 120p | NET CASH: | £491m |
Year to 30 Jun | Turnover (£m) | Pre-tax profit (£m) | Earnings per share (p) | Dividend per share (p) |
2016 | 212 | 168 | 19.1 | 16.65 |
2017 | 257 | 206 | 25.1 | 16.65 |
2018 | 286 | 191 | 22.6 | 16.65 |
2019 | 316 | 220 | 26.6 | 16.65 |
2020 | 330 | 222 | 27.4 | 16.9 |
% change | +4 | +1 | +3 | +2 |
Ex-div: | 5 Nov | |||
Payment: | 11 Dec |