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Shaftesbury weighs hope against huge uncertainty

The West-End landlord would not be drawn on the possibility of a merger with local rival CapCo
June 10, 2020

Shaftesbury (SHB) first felt the looming effects of Covid-19 in February, when a sudden drop in footfall in Chinatown sparked a raft of business closures and suspended lettings. By its half-year mark, lockdown was in place, rent collections were stuttering and its independent valuers were forced to include a “material uncertainty” statement in their assessment of the West-End landlord’s portfolio.

IC TIP: Hold at 631p

This is in addition to a £300m valuation hit, which explains the large statutory loss. Unsurprisingly, income has taken a serious knock, too. Although constructive lease discussions and a switch to monthly rent payments are designed to ease tenants’ pain, half of rents due between April and September are planned for collection “over time”. With that in mind, management has agreed, in principle, waivers of interest cover covenants with lenders for between nine and 12 months from April this year. 

Chief executive Brian Bickell expects most of that cash to come “within a year” and sees the busy green spaces and parks of central London as a sign of pent-up demand for a return to normalcy. “It’s like the seaside getting ready for the season,” he says. But while Shaftesbury’s 15.2-acre portfolio has a long history of reinvention, social distancing rules and visitor risk aversion remain huge challenges.

To help overcome this, the company has teamed up with other local landlords in a marketing push to get domestic and international footfall back in the autumn. Among those partners is Capital & Counties (CAPC), which last week acquired 26 per cent of Shaftesbury shares.

Consensus analyst forecasts are for net asset value per share of 856p by September, and 841p a year later.

SHAFTESBURY (SHB)   
ORD PRICE:631pMARKET VALUE:£1.94bn
TOUCH:629-631p12-MONTH HIGH:993pLOW: 478p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.4%TRADING PROPERTIES:nil
DISCOUNT TO NAV:28%NET DEBT:34%
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES:£3.6bn*   
Half-year to 31 MarNet asset value (p)**Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201999538.712.68.7
2020878-288-93.6nil
% change-12---
Ex-div: na   
Payment: na   
*Includes investments in joint ventures.
**EPRA NAV