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Go-Ahead rail beats forecast

The transport company's rail profits more than halved after its London Midlands franchise expired
February 21, 2019

Rail operating profits at Go-Ahead (GOG) more than halved during the first six months of its financial year to £17.6m. But this was better than expected. Its London Midland franchise expired in December 2017, while a settlement with the Department for Transport (DfT) over the Govia Thameslink (GTR) service also dented profits. Govia Thameslink – a franchise that runs until 2021 – has since recovered from chaotic timetable changes made last May. But a profit sharing mechanism with the DfT means margins will only land between 0.75 and 1 per cent. More positively, improved profitability from the Southeastern franchise has continued into the second half now that services have resumed through London Bridge. 

IC TIP: Hold at 1953p

Go-Ahead is also branching out into alternative transport. It’s working with PickMeUp, the on-demand mini-bus service in Oxfordshire that launched last June. The service now has 20,000 registered users and provides 3,000 weekly rides, and a similar project is being trialled in Sutton. While chief executive David Brown said it had been a "steep learning curve", it could be key to Go-Ahead’s strategy to invest in "the future of transport".

Analysts at broker Investec expect pre-tax profits of £106m during the year to June 2019, giving EPS of 170p, compared with £123m and 181p in FY2018.

GO-AHEAD (GOG)  
ORD PRICE:1,953pMARKET VALUE:£842m
TOUCH:1,952-1,956p12-MONTH HIGH:2,100pLOW: 1,310p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5.3%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:574p*NET DEBT:93%
Half-year to 30 SepTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20171.8379.711630.2
20181.9244.260.730.2
% change+5-45-47-
Ex-div:28 Mar   
Payment:12 Apr   
*Includes £101m of intangible assets, or 234p a share