Anglo Pacific (APF) isn’t the only business to get on the wrong side of commodity prices this year. Volatility in global coal markets fed through a substantial fall in royalty revenues, together with a 4 per cent reduction in net assets.
The group’s business model is attractive because it enables it earn from the sale of natural resources without being burdened by the usual capital-intensive considerations of the extractive industries.
That does not mean, however, that it is immune to the vagaries of commodity pricing, especially when aggregate industrial demand falls off a cliff. Anglo Pacific has also suffered because a lop-sided portfolio. Receipts from its key investment – the Kestrel coking coal mine in Queensland – contracted by 47 per cent during the first half, yet they still account for around two-thirds of the group total.
Matters were not helped by a one-off charge of around £1.0m at the Maracás Menchen Vanadium mine in Brazil, upon termination of the Glencore offtake agreement, while revenues from the Canadian LIORC iron-ore arrangement were constricted by planned capex investments.
Anglo continues in its efforts to diversify away from coal, particularly the thermal variety, with revenues from Kestrel earmarked for non-coal royalty streams that fall within the group’s socially responsible investment guidelines. However, even with the green tilt, it may take a while before the over-reliance on Kestrel is no longer in evidence.
Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet are for adjusted EPS in 2020 of 14.93p, rising to 20.97p next year.
ANGLO PACIFIC (APF) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 105p | MARKET VALUE: | £190m | |
TOUCH: | 105-106p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 217p | LOW: 99p |
DIVIDEND YIELD: | 8.8% | PE RATIO: | NA | |
NET ASSET VALUE: | 119p* | NET DEBT: | 18% |
Half-year to 30 June | Royalty Revenue (£m) | Pre-tax profit (£m) | Earnings per share (p) | Dividend per share (p) |
2019 | 31.3 | 41.2 | 16.8 | 3.25 |
2020 | 17.8 | -15.5 | -6.22 | 3.5 |
% change | -43 | - | - | +8 |
Ex-div: | tba | |||
Payment: | 13 Nov | |||
*Includes intangible assets of £105m, or 58p a share. |