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Anglo Pacific maintains quarterly rate

The group's coal royalties have fallen along with industrial demand
August 27, 2020

Anglo Pacific (APF) isn’t the only business to get on the wrong side of commodity prices this year. Volatility in global coal markets fed through a substantial fall in royalty revenues, together with a 4 per cent reduction in net assets.

IC TIP: Buy at 105p

The group’s business model is attractive because it enables it earn from the sale of natural resources without being burdened by the usual capital-intensive considerations of the extractive industries.

That does not mean, however, that it is immune to the vagaries of commodity pricing, especially when aggregate industrial demand falls off a cliff. Anglo Pacific has also suffered because a lop-sided portfolio. Receipts from its key investment – the Kestrel coking coal mine in Queensland – contracted by 47 per cent during the first half, yet they still account for around two-thirds of the group total.

Matters were not helped by a one-off charge of around £1.0m at the Maracás Menchen Vanadium mine in Brazil, upon termination of the Glencore offtake agreement, while revenues from the Canadian LIORC iron-ore arrangement were constricted by planned capex investments.

Anglo continues in its efforts to diversify away from coal, particularly the thermal variety, with revenues from Kestrel earmarked for non-coal royalty streams that fall within the group’s socially responsible investment guidelines. However, even with the green tilt, it may take a while before the over-reliance on Kestrel is no longer in evidence.

Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet are for adjusted EPS in 2020 of 14.93p, rising to 20.97p next year.

ANGLO PACIFIC (APF)   
ORD PRICE:105pMARKET VALUE:£190m
TOUCH:105-106p12-MONTH HIGH:217pLOW: 99p
DIVIDEND YIELD:8.8%PE RATIO:NA
NET ASSET VALUE:119p*NET DEBT:18%
Half-year to 30 JuneRoyalty Revenue (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201931.341.216.83.25
202017.8-15.5-6.223.5
% change-43--+8
Ex-div:tba   
Payment:13 Nov   
*Includes intangible assets of £105m, or 58p a share.