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St Modwen's transition continues

The focus now is on housebuilding, urban logistics and student accommodation
February 6, 2018

The transition that started at the end of 2016 gathered pace in the year to November 2017, as St Modwen Properties (SMP) shifted its focus towards "sectors with better structural growth characteristics", such as housebuilding, urban logistics and student accommodation.

IC TIP: Buy at 391.4p

Crucially, this is being achieved by exploiting its existing portfolio at a time when the market for new assets remains extremely competitive. Notable developments included a 43 per cent jump in housing completions at St Modwen Homes, with plans to expand by a further 25 per cent in 2018. St Modwen has also been appointed master developer at two sites at Wantage and Buckover to oversee the construction of 4,500 homes. This is attractive because there is very little capital expense, with land released to builders, including St Modwen Homes, on a phased basis. A total of 1.4m sq ft of commercial space was delivered, and there is a 7.5m sq ft pipeline of industrial and logistics space, most of which St Modwen will retain, generating an estimated rental value of £45m.

Finances were boosted by the sale of 10 acres of surplus land at Nine Elms Square, which contributed to £324m of disposals. Further sales of smaller assets will take place through 2018, and are expected to raise up to £150m. Its retail exposure will also be reduced, with sales of around £250m over the next few years.

Analysts at Peel Hunt are forecasting adjusted net asset value at the November 2018 year-end of 507.3p (from 476.9p in 2017).

ST MODWEN PROPERTIES (SMP)  
ORD PRICE:391.4pMARKET VALUE:£870m
TOUCH:390.6-391.6p12-MONTH HIGH:429pLOW: 305p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.6%TRADING STOCK:£353m
DISCOUNT TO NAV:13%   
INVEST PROPERTIES:£1.29bn*NET DEBT:43%
Year to 30 NovNet asset value (p)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20132798133.54
201432513253.84.6
201541423597.95.75
20164316724.16
20174517026.96.28
% change+5+5+12+5
Ex-div8 Mar   
Payment:4 Apr   
*Includes joint ventures