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Gulf Keystone struggles to overcome oil crash

The Kurdistan oil producer cut costs and and increased production but it was not enough to protect earnings against a lower realised price
September 3, 2020

With the oil price crash dominating its first half, Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) cut operating costs and maintained a net cash position despite the major loss of revenue. The long-running delays in getting paid by the Kurdistan authority for production have also continued, with recent months’ payment coming through but $73m (£55m) due from November to February still outstanding. 

IC TIP: Hold at 82p

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has said it would catch up on the payments once oil gets above $50 per barrel (bbl). Gulf Keystone has booked a $13m expected credit loss on the payment, although said it should be paid eventually. 

Despite earnings slipping into the red, the first half was a success operationally. Gross production at the 80-per-cent-owned Shaikan field was 36,272 barrels of oil per day (bopd), out to September 1, and guidance for the year has been set at 35,000-36,000bopd. First-half oil production was up more than a quarter on the first half of 2019, and gross operating costs were down a third to $2.60/bbl. This was not enough to overcome the realised oil price tumbling 57 per cent to $19/bbl. 

Gulf Keystone has now spent $2.7m to give itself a price floor of $35/bbl for 70 per cent of its production in the second half as part of a hedging programme. 

It was not just lower prices that hit the company - the plan was to bring Shaikan up to 55,000bopd before the pandemic saw work suspended in March. 

Consensus forecasts are for cash profits to slide to $28m this year, from $122m in 2019. 

GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM (GKP)   
ORD PRICE:82pMARKET VALUE:£ 172m
TOUCH:82-83p12-MONTH HIGH:247pLOW: 47p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.4%PE RATIO:NA
NET ASSET VALUE:222¢NET CASH:$39m
Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)*
201995.624.210.614.7
202049.9-32.6-15.6nil
% change-48---
Ex-div:na   
Payment:na   
£1=$1.34