The UK legal services market is highly fragmented. At the top of the pile sit the so-called magic and silver circle firms, operating internationally and charging the fattest fees. Below this elite echelon, there exist various regional and high-street practices. And, in recent years, the sector has become even more fractured – and competitive – because of the participation of rivals from overseas and from other industries: all ‘Big Four’ auditors have applied for law licences.
Benefiting from the changing structure of the UK legal market
Strong organic growth
Diversifying revenues through acquisitions
Significant addressable market
Reliance on case settlement for cash generation
Listed legal market is increasingly competitive
Against this crowded backdrop, there is a significant opportunity for growth in the UK legal mid-market, which some estimates value at £8.8bn annually. This is where listed legal services group Gateley (GTLY) is focused. Its IPO in mid-2015 has allowed it to raise its profile with potential clients, fund acquisitions and attract high-quality young employees by offering share participation, which has noteworthy attractions over the industry’s partnership model, which looks increasingly outdated – as we explored in a recent sector focus article.
Significant progress has already been made on these objectives. Indeed, for the six months to October 2017, Gateley saw sales rise 9.8 per cent to £38.6m, buoyed by 8.4 per cent organic growth. Signalling the steady diversification of its revenue streams, the remaining 1.4 per cent of growth stemmed from two non-legal acquisitions: Gateley Hamer and Gateley Capitus. The former is a specialist tax incentives advisory business and the latter is a specialist property consultancy. Together, they offer strong cross-selling opportunities.
Gateley is also diversifying via internal investment. Its new global mobility platform allows employees to be relocated for international assignments. The potential for scale here is serious; forecasters suggest global mobility assignments could increase by 50 per cent by 2020.
Meanwhile, recruitment remains a central focus for management. Gateley’s headcount rose 6.4 per cent to 763 last year, including six partner hires – arguably proving the appeal of a public entity with share schemes available to all staff members.
Of course, such expenditure weighs on earnings. Half-year pre-tax profits were flat at £4.2m. But, encouragingly, the corporate, property, and banking and financial services divisions all reported double-digit revenue growth with improved profitability.
What are the potential challenges facing Gateley? First, it relies on case settlement to sustain cash generation. So along with net debt of £7.1m at the end of October receivables stood at £38.4m, or 47 per cent of sales in the preceding 12 months. Debt collection remains a priority for management. Second, there is fresh competition on Aim from Gordon Dadds (GOR) and Keystone Law (KEYS), both of which floated in 2017. However, for us, more legal IPOs simply render Gateley’s investment case more relevant.
GATELEY (GTLY) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 168p | MARKET VALUE: | £179m | |
TOUCH: | 165-170p | 12-MONTH HIGH: 198p | LOW: 138p | |
FW DIVIDEND YIELD: | 4.5% | FW PE RATIO: | 15 | |
NET ASSET VALUE: | 15.3p | NET DEBT: | 43% |
Year to 31 Oct | Turnover (£m) | Pre-tax profit (£m)* | Earnings per share (p)* | Dividend per share (p) |
2015 | 61.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | nil |
2016 | 67.1 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 |
2017 | 77.6 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 |
2018* | 83.2 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 7.1 |
2019* | 88.2 | 15.9 | 11.4 | 7.5 |
% change | +6 | +7 | +7 | +6 |
Normal market size: | 2,000 | |||
Matched bargain trading | ||||
Beta: | 1.04 | |||
*N+1 Singer forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures |