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Buy into Ideagen's growth potential

The group is making progress on its 2022 revenue and earnings targets
September 26, 2019

Ideagen (IDEA) supplies risk management software to companies in highly-regulated sectors such as aviation, banking and life sciences. At the last count, it had over 4,700 customers – including seven out of 10 of the UK’s top accounting firms and three-quarters of the world’s biggest pharma organisations. Not a bad position to be in, amidst an integrated risk management market that Gartner says was worth $5.4bn (£4.3bn) in 2018 – with estimated growth of 13 per cent each year.

IC TIP: Buy at 145.5p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Improving recurring revenues
Diversification of top line
Growth targets
Large addressable market

Bear points

High receivables to sales
Acquisition integration risk

The group targets £100m in run-rate revenues by 2022 – more than double last year's sales – and recurring revenues representing at least 75 per cent of the total. Management reckons that around £70m of sales will stem from organic growth, and £30m from acquisitions. It aims for cash-profit margins of 30 per cent, with operating cash collection constituting more than 90 per cent of cash profits.

Failing to meet these ambitious goals would cause considerable disappointment. But the full-year results to April 2019 suggest that it’s on the right track. Recurring revenues represented 67 per cent of the top line, up from 62 per cent. Fuelling this uplift – and reflecting Ideagen’s shift towards a software-as-a-service model – so-called ‘SaaS’ revenues rose by 63 per cent to £13.7m. True, the less desirable consequence of such a shift is that the organic growth rate dipped from 11 per cent to 8 per cent. Still, this setback is somewhat mitigated by the advantage of better visibility. More than three-quarters of its clients are international, with 28 per cent in the US.

As a highly acquisitive business, Ideagen is vulnerable to the risk of unsuccessful or complicated integration processes. It purchased three companies – each of which helped to scale and diversify its customer base. Among these, Morgan Kai – which was bought last September for £20.5m, and which offers a leading internal audit management product – doubled the size of Ideagen’s existing internal audit business, while also offering geographical diversification. Post-period-end, in June 2019, Ideagen bought Redland – a fast-growing and profitable regulation technology SaaS business, focusing on the financial services industry – for £15.8m.

Evidently, such deals haven’t come cheap. The latter is being funded by an extended £28m revolving credit facility with NatWest, spanning three years. Ideagen also raised £20m last September, via an oversubscribed placing of 14m shares (6.9 per cent of its issued share capital) at 142p each – a slight discount to the prior day’s close. Further placings could, feasibly, ensue.

Ideagen (IDEA)   
ORD PRICE:145.5pMARKET VALUE:£321m 
TOUCH:145.5-146p12-MONTH HIGH:169pLOW:118p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:0.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:58 
NET ASSET VALUE:33.6p*NET DEBT:2% 
Year to 30 AprTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201727.10.70.40.20
201836.11.40.80.20
201946.71.40.70.30
2020**58.06.31.90.30
2021**63.57.82.50.40
% change+9+24+32+33
Normal market size:10,000    
Beta:1.52    
*Includes intangible assets of £91m, or 41.4p a share
**FinnCap forecasts