In the latest budget, Chancellor Rishi Sunak opened by stating that the UK’s public finances are twice as sensitive to changes in interest rates as they were before the pandemic, and that a 1 per cent increase in inflation and interest rates would cost around £23bn.
Clearly there is a political imperative to keep the cost of borrowing down, as Hamish Baillie, lead manager of Ruffer Investment Company (RICA) explains in this week’s podcast. He spells out why he thinks long-term disinflationary forces are waning and why he’s preparing for a period of enduring inflation.
Speaking with the IC’s Mary McDougall, he defends putting up with -2 per cent real yields on long-dated index-linked gilts and talks through Ruffer’s thought process behind buying bitcoin in November 2020 and selling out entirely by April 2021. They also discuss the outlook for some the UK's largest banks and energy companies.
Ruffer Investment Company is a multi asset “all weather portfolio” designed to deliver a positive return in all market conditions. Its share price was up 28 per cent for the year to 27 October, and 42 per cent over five years.