For a long time now, US Congress has worried that its nation’s military space programmes have been off the pace, according to Kathleen McInnis, a specialist in international security at the Congressional Research Service. A report she co-authored - Toward the Creation of a US “Space Force” - states that “fragmentation and overlap in national security space acquisition management and oversight have contributed to program delays and cancellations, cost increases and inefficient operations”. China, Russia and other nations are finding ways to target US space systems. Uncle Sam is responding accordingly.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) has requested $14.1bn (£10.9bn) for space in 2020. Around $72m of this will go towards establishing a Space Force, which has been championed by President Donald Trump. “One of the primary intended functions of a new Space Force is to create a more streamlined system of procurement for space capabilities,” according to Ms McInnis. Space Force will cost approximately $2bn over five years. This is a minuscule outlay on space defence, given that the DoD will receive $718.3bn in 2020 overall.
Conflict has historically shaped the space race, but things are changing. The Nasa budget stagnated under President Obama. The likes of SpaceX and Blue Origin, run by business moguls Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respectively, symbolise the growing importance of the private sector in space development. The military must learn to share space with corporate enterprise. Reliable reusable rockets and passenger flights are within our grasp.
Fifty years ago this July, the Cold War forced us towards the moon, where Neil Armstrong took that small step for a man. But fiction has captured, and inspired much of our experience of space. Early into his first term, The West Wing’s President Bartlet refers to a lost Soviet satellite, which has mistakenly been identified by a White House visitor as a UFO, as “a sad reminder of a time when two powerful nations challenged each other, and then boldly raced into outer space”. There are more than two nations in space now – it remains a potential landscape for conflict. Moreover, space is no longer the preserve of warring governments.
To infinity and beyond
At £14.8bn, the total level of UK space industry income in 2017 stood at 5.1 per cent of the global space economy. Broadcasting dominated, accounting for 51 per cent of revenues, followed by communications (19 per cent), position, navigation and timing (12 per cent), defence (8 per cent) and earth observation (3 per cent).
Several UK-listed companies are operating at the forefront of the space industry. No Western astronaut has ever been into space without Cobham (COB) kit, according to a company spokesperson. The Cobham space range is broad, and includes propulsion kit, communications systems, testing systems and computer processors. In Spring, Cobham Gaisler’s HiRel GR712RC processor travelled onboard a mission to the moon carried out by Israeli non-profit organisation SpaceIL, assisted by Israel Aerospace Industries. Cobham has also worked for over 30 years with satellite giant Inmarsat (ISAT), which is currently subject to takeover interest, and will provide Inmarsat with ground infrastructure for its I-6 constellation, due for launch next year. The constellation will extend satellite capacity for global safety services and mobile solutions. “By ensuring global availability of reliable safety services we can help save hundreds of lives every year,” says Paul Kahn, president of communications and connectivity at Cobham.
QinetiQ (QQ.) operates in similar areas to Cobham, producing everything for ground to satellite, from space security to avionics. Chemring (CHG), meanwhile, has a greater specialisation in component manufacturing, and produces Nasa-exclusive ‘standard initiators’, which provide an energy source for converting electrical signals into a gas pressure output, or high-temperature flame and hot particles. This exclusivity is governed by International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which are designed to prevent US military technology from falling into the wrong hands. Chemring also produces a commercial variant of the product for non-Nasa customers, along with items including bolts, nuts and cutters.
Graham Carberry, a partner at merger and acquisitions specialist Livingstone Partners, estimates that $3bn-$4bn in venture capital money went into space over the past few years. “The main two areas where people have been investing are in satellite networks and launch mechanisms,” he says, citing SpaceX and Blue Origin as targets for particularly heavy investment. “Over the next few years we expect commercial to be bigger than military,” he adds.
Making room for space
Not everyone in UK aerospace is focused on space, though. In May 2014, Cohort (CHRT) sold its systems engineering and assessment (SEA) business’s space division to Thales Alenia Space, in a £5m deal. At the time of the sale, Cohort chief executive Andy Thomis said the deal “enables SEA to focus on its core defence and transport markets, and to build on its strong positions in naval communications, software, synthetic environments and other electronic systems”, adding that it “frees up resources and funding to pursue our growth strategy”.
Nigel Towers, Deputy chief executive and head of strategy, marketing and sales at Thales Alenia Space, said that Thales is looking for ways to ensure that space remains safe and open for travel.
“The growing concern, apart from any sort of military threat, is actually the potential problem of debris,” he said. “The lower earth orbits are getting very crowded, and it won’t take many accidents to make those non-functional.”
Mr Carberry, who was involved in the 2017 sale of Scottish cubesat manufacturer Clyde Space to Swedish space technology company AAC Microtec, cautioned against a “gold rush” into space, amid growing enthusiasm for the industry. There were 4,857 satellites orbiting the earth in 2018, according to Pixalytics.
“There’s probably a legislative and international angle that needs to be considered here,” he argues. “It’s a bit like fishing. If you go mental and catch every fish in the sea there eventually won’t be any fish at all. So for space to have a long-term future, particularly related to earth orbit, there has to be some sort of mechanism put in place.”
Two other giants of the UK aerospace and defence industry are involved in space, but not as a priority. Meggitt (MGGT) manufactures a range of sensors, valves and ducts for space vehicles. But a spokesperson said that “its exposure is minimal in a group context”, amounting to less than 1 per cent of total revenues. BAE Systems’ (BA.) space operations are predominantly US-based, and it supports space communication systems with mapping software, radio antenna design and electronics. It also works with the European Space Agency (ESA) on applied intelligence. But it does not prioritise the space industry either.
These companies seem to mirror a uniquely British attitude towards space. Our government viewed space, until recently, essentially through the lens of science fiction, according to Mark Hempsell, an expert at the British Interplanetary Society. He laments the overall British outlay on space, which has been “woefully, way, way, way lower” than the budgets of other developed nations. But it is part of manifest destiny, he argues, for us to be out there. Perhaps the likes of Meggitt and BAE will reconsider the virtues of the space market. Human survival may depend upon it. We return to The West Wing.
“Surely we can do it again,” President Bartlet tells his entourage. “As we did in the times when our eyes looked towards the heavens and, with outstretched fingers, we touched the face of God.”
